Message from @Sophie
Discord ID: 679684499436470360
He has the same amount of support from indep's as he did in January
2017
That is a big problem for him
Just inaccurate statement
> 2017 Jan 20-29 89 42 13
Sigh approval ratings are not electoral performance
2020 Jan 16-29 94 42 7
It’s like talking to a child
42 and 42
Read 538
Learn how to read a poll
Learn how these questions are asked
Ok let me go over this again, 42% of independents approve of Trump. This was the same in January 2017.
Where is this "lost" support.
Approval is not electoral performance
<:political_thinking:583244726040264704>
The lost support is the landslides against trump in 2017, 2018, 2019
All of which conformed to the generic ballot
But the approval ratings suggest otherwise.
This is about Trump, not his party.
I’m talking about actual votes, not approval ratings
The actual votes were back in 2016
Anything between then is not a representative.
Mhm, the 3 years after 2016 are more recent than 2016 honey
Of course they are
Because we get this
> "Nearly two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president against all three named opponents."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/one-year-from-election-trump-trails-biden-but-leads-warren-in-battlegrounds.html
Trump was very much “on the ballot”
...yes
No, he wasn't.
His party was.
Let’s walk through that statement
Nearly 2/3rds
This is what people said in 2010 about Obama.
That is catastrophic for trump
Not really, combined with the people who *didn't* vote.
That's a good sign.
2012 also conformed to the generic ballot
That means a full 1/3rd of people who voted for trump in 2016 but voted for a dem in 2018 are definitely voting against him in 2020