Message from @Shockwave
Discord ID: 604127632862478360
thats not what we're talking about but i guess the discussion is over
K
>why dont we try to eradicate something that is difficult to diagnose in the first place
<:Pepega:522627101845880852>
lets just call it a day and redefine corruption to something we can turn into 0%
just another utopian idea
bad
Fuck YouTube
I predict we'll see another recession anywhere from tomorrow to 2020 Q4
@Shockwave I disagree. I'd say between it'd happen in the 2021 fiscal year. The US economy is not regressing. I haven't paid attention to recent manufacturing or unemployment data since around last quarter or so, but from the looks of the stock market, the US is headed into another peak which ends in a correction. After that, I might agree that a stagnation could take hold however I doubt the economy will suddenly go into a tailspin (unless some far-left person wins the Presidency).
Mortgage Rates are at a 3 year low, the Fed is about the lower the interest rates, and finally the yield curve has exceeded a Quarter as of June 30th, 2019.
@Fane the last 7+ times the yield curve inverted like this for a quarter or longer there was a recession on average 12 months afterwards. Last time it was 24 months
Combine that with all of the tariffs we keep threatening and utilizing.
yep agreed fetty
There is also 1.4 Million americans who have been unemployed long term too. Over 30 days.
it wont happen in 2019 though
itll be 2020
Probably not 2019. Right. It could, but most likely it'll be 2020
They will say "I will fix the recession" for sure.
people keep pointing out low unemployment rate, its such an absurd argument. every recession in recent memory had low unemployment rate the year before the recession. thats a natural consequence of a bubble economy
Right.
same with the stock market
it always at a high 1 year before the recession
unemployment is not even low
Unemployment rate and stock market is kinda like trying to figure out if you are about to throw up. If your mouth is already watering and the stock market is crashing... well then we're about to have a little problem here lmfao.
the real rate of unemployment is the U6 number
which is 7%ish
america hasnt had low unemployment for decades
they just manipulated the statistics so that it shows "low"
Yeah that is pretty unfortunate.
yeeep
thats what happens you sign NAFTA
people become structurally unemployed
Yeahhhh I don't know much about NAFTA
I ought to learn about it though.
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