Message from @Shockwave
Discord ID: 604127999201247263
Fuck YouTube
I predict we'll see another recession anywhere from tomorrow to 2020 Q4
@Shockwave I disagree. I'd say between it'd happen in the 2021 fiscal year. The US economy is not regressing. I haven't paid attention to recent manufacturing or unemployment data since around last quarter or so, but from the looks of the stock market, the US is headed into another peak which ends in a correction. After that, I might agree that a stagnation could take hold however I doubt the economy will suddenly go into a tailspin (unless some far-left person wins the Presidency).
Mortgage Rates are at a 3 year low, the Fed is about the lower the interest rates, and finally the yield curve has exceeded a Quarter as of June 30th, 2019.
@Fane the last 7+ times the yield curve inverted like this for a quarter or longer there was a recession on average 12 months afterwards. Last time it was 24 months
Combine that with all of the tariffs we keep threatening and utilizing.
yep agreed fetty
There is also 1.4 Million americans who have been unemployed long term too. Over 30 days.
it wont happen in 2019 though
itll be 2020
Probably not 2019. Right. It could, but most likely it'll be 2020
It will be a great selling point for one of the candidates on any side.
They will say "I will fix the recession" for sure.
people keep pointing out low unemployment rate, its such an absurd argument. every recession in recent memory had low unemployment rate the year before the recession. thats a natural consequence of a bubble economy
Right.
same with the stock market
it always at a high 1 year before the recession
unemployment is not even low
Unemployment rate and stock market is kinda like trying to figure out if you are about to throw up. If your mouth is already watering and the stock market is crashing... well then we're about to have a little problem here lmfao.
the real rate of unemployment is the U6 number
which is 7%ish
america hasnt had low unemployment for decades
they just manipulated the statistics so that it shows "low"
Yeah that is pretty unfortunate.
yeeep
thats what happens you sign NAFTA
people become structurally unemployed
Yeahhhh I don't know much about NAFTA
I ought to learn about it though.
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@Shockwave it was just a free trade deal
lowered trade barriers between mexico, canada and the US
which meant american companies could produce goods in those countries without worry
which meant american workers lost their jobs because factories left
Your paragraph in <#513098339961798676> has impressed me greatly. I aspire to your extent of knowledge.
GG @Shockwave, you just advanced to level 4!
I just appreciate that you are well-read.