I know you wouldn’t do it exactly the same, but you would remove the central bank, right? That’s really the difference that matters

You're using the NBER numbers, they're flawed. The paper goes back to 1880, which is not that far but it's pretty far considering the system pre that was effectively the same, and finds the results: shorter recovery times; less persistant; less severe pre fed (not even including the depression for the federal reserve).

> but you would remove the central bank, right?
Yes, but it's much more nuanced than that.

The 1800s is not my ideal because it wasn't exactly 'free banking', not regarding note issuing but regulations making the banking sector fragile, causing credit pyramiding.

And you think that this wouldn’t happen if you remove regulations or control from the situation?

The regulations I'm talking about in the 1800s? Yes, those issues would cease to exist.

That's my prime system.

And no central banking authority?

Would each bank have its own currency or would each have authority to issue US dollars?

No central banking authority, but I wouldn’t be so sure of independent currency issuance.

Is SINT still maintaining there won't be a recession?

We should tax income made working overtime less

@DrYuriMom SINT?

> except any nation that does have central banking can manipulate your currency, so that’s fun
The treasury exists @Sophie

You. Sidisnotthere. SINT

Feel free to refer to me as DYM

Well I agree, there isn’t any sign of a recession.

Bear market.

That isn’t due to a recession, it’s due to virus fears

Haha

The recent jobless claims have fallen, which would not be expected if we were in a downturn

Adorable

Thanks, I actually understand how the economy processes.

A stock market falling doesn’t necessarily mean there is a recession; in this case it means investors are temporarily feeling bearish due to exogenous reasons.

However the economy doesn’t show any signs so far. Like I said the Feb job reports and this weeks jobless claims falling.

What will happen after the pandemic is gone? Will the normal economy go back or is that too late to invest?

All that you mention are lagging indicators SINT

I think Sophie and I will be proved right

The most reliable indicator of a recession, the yield curve inverting was already a thing more than a few months ago. The stock market is just the icing on the cake and the signature and the date for the clear signal that we'll be going into a recession. It's only inevitable.

Unless you mean to suggest that the Fed yield curve didn't actually predict the last 60 years worth of recessions consistently? @sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ

@Shockwave The yield curve isn’t a mechanism that predicts a recession, as in a recession will happen if it inverts - this isn’t true. It’s mainly a warning sign to act, if the FED lowers interest rates and takes action the impending “recession” will not come.

@Hollow Vagabond Back to normal

Okay, you're ripping a Ben Shapiro and stating to obvious expecting me to give you the dub for the argument over changing the entire narrative of what I was saying.

Note that historically, for 6 to 7 decades there was a recession on average 24 months after the yield curve inverted. Every time.

Is it cause and effect? No, but you must admit that this is consistent enough to spark confidence in the common coincidence following such a phenomenon.

@Shockwave In this case it’s different, the yield curve isn’t saying there will be a recession but signalling action must be taken.

It’s what the federal reserve did; hence a recession is not probable anytime soon.

Time will tell. Given the rapid loss of spending I expect we will see the mist rapid recession in US history. Our economy is built on spending and pretty much all spending except for a handful of specific items has essentially dried up.

It’s not so simple.

Its if Bloomberg becomes president we will have a better minimal wage but prices will go up only good for a short time we’ll only get dried up slower

@DrYuriMom The dow jumped 2k.

@Baphomet The business cycle doesn't mean "Capitalism" will collapse.