Message from @abby_ella

Discord ID: 687405172816871465


2020-03-11 18:15:02 UTC  

We're even excluding the Great depression, so if anything the FED is getting lee-way.

2020-03-11 18:18:06 UTC  

That’s a stretch to apply that paper to my point, given that it only goes back to 1887. There were some pretty severe and long lasting 19th century depressions between 1836 and 1887

2020-03-11 18:18:29 UTC  

There's little data on the NBER before 1887.

2020-03-11 18:18:48 UTC  

But even so, it's reasonable to assume it would be more or less the same since the system was effectively similar.

2020-03-11 18:20:15 UTC  

We have great data on how long they lasted though, so at the very least, the “less persistent” and “shorter recovery times” part can be challenged by that

2020-03-11 18:20:45 UTC  

Pre 1887 had similar recessions in those metrics if we look at the flawed NBER data, it's not a far fetched assumption.

2020-03-11 18:21:07 UTC  

One would expect due to technological change recessions would get better post fed, but it's surprising that did not happen.

2020-03-11 18:39:22 UTC  

@abby_ella In my ideal, I wouldn't use the system of the 1800s exactly since it had a few flaws.

2020-03-11 18:41:32 UTC  

SHUT THE FUCK UP

2020-03-11 18:41:38 UTC  

Guys I’m 8

2020-03-11 18:41:41 UTC  

Lmao

2020-03-11 18:47:51 UTC  

@Valindra they’re having a discussion about economics in the economics channel, just mute the channel if you don’t want to see it

2020-03-11 19:06:45 UTC  

So I did some averaging, the average recession under free banking lasted 2 years and 2 months. The average under the federal reserve lasted 1 year and 2 months. That’s a significant difference

2020-03-11 19:07:08 UTC  

I know you wouldn’t do it exactly the same, but you would remove the central bank, right? That’s really the difference that matters

2020-03-11 19:07:38 UTC  

You're using the NBER numbers, they're flawed. The paper goes back to 1880, which is not that far but it's pretty far considering the system pre that was effectively the same, and finds the results: shorter recovery times; less persistant; less severe pre fed (not even including the depression for the federal reserve).

2020-03-11 19:07:49 UTC  

> but you would remove the central bank, right?
Yes, but it's much more nuanced than that.

2020-03-11 19:10:32 UTC  

The 1800s is not my ideal because it wasn't exactly 'free banking', not regarding note issuing but regulations making the banking sector fragile, causing credit pyramiding.

2020-03-11 19:15:06 UTC  

And you think that this wouldn’t happen if you remove regulations or control from the situation?

2020-03-11 19:15:31 UTC  

The regulations I'm talking about in the 1800s? Yes, those issues would cease to exist.

2020-03-11 19:15:34 UTC  

That's my prime system.

2020-03-11 21:02:44 UTC  

And no central banking authority?

2020-03-11 21:03:29 UTC  

Would each bank have its own currency or would each have authority to issue US dollars?

2020-03-11 21:51:38 UTC  

No central banking authority, but I wouldn’t be so sure of independent currency issuance.

2020-03-12 04:03:15 UTC  

Is SINT still maintaining there won't be a recession?

2020-03-12 04:35:09 UTC  

We should tax income made working overtime less

2020-03-12 08:02:45 UTC  
2020-03-12 10:11:12 UTC  

> except any nation that does have central banking can manipulate your currency, so that’s fun
The treasury exists @Sophie

2020-03-12 13:35:12 UTC  

You. Sidisnotthere. SINT

2020-03-12 13:35:26 UTC  

Feel free to refer to me as DYM

2020-03-12 14:24:18 UTC  

Well I agree, there isn’t any sign of a recession.

2020-03-12 14:24:37 UTC  

Bear market.

2020-03-12 14:24:48 UTC  

That isn’t due to a recession, it’s due to virus fears

2020-03-12 14:24:56 UTC  

Haha

2020-03-12 14:25:04 UTC  

The recent jobless claims have fallen, which would not be expected if we were in a downturn

2020-03-12 14:25:04 UTC  

Adorable

2020-03-12 14:25:26 UTC  

Thanks, I actually understand how the economy processes.

2020-03-12 14:25:51 UTC  

A stock market falling doesn’t necessarily mean there is a recession; in this case it means investors are temporarily feeling bearish due to exogenous reasons.

2020-03-12 14:26:01 UTC  

However the economy doesn’t show any signs so far. Like I said the Feb job reports and this weeks jobless claims falling.

2020-03-12 22:02:43 UTC  

What will happen after the pandemic is gone? Will the normal economy go back or is that too late to invest?

2020-03-13 00:23:45 UTC  

All that you mention are lagging indicators SINT

2020-03-13 00:24:09 UTC  

I think Sophie and I will be proved right