Well I agree, there isn’t any sign of a recession.

Bear market.

That isn’t due to a recession, it’s due to virus fears

Haha

The recent jobless claims have fallen, which would not be expected if we were in a downturn

Adorable

Thanks, I actually understand how the economy processes.

A stock market falling doesn’t necessarily mean there is a recession; in this case it means investors are temporarily feeling bearish due to exogenous reasons.

However the economy doesn’t show any signs so far. Like I said the Feb job reports and this weeks jobless claims falling.

What will happen after the pandemic is gone? Will the normal economy go back or is that too late to invest?

All that you mention are lagging indicators SINT

I think Sophie and I will be proved right

The most reliable indicator of a recession, the yield curve inverting was already a thing more than a few months ago. The stock market is just the icing on the cake and the signature and the date for the clear signal that we'll be going into a recession. It's only inevitable.

Unless you mean to suggest that the Fed yield curve didn't actually predict the last 60 years worth of recessions consistently? @sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ

@Shockwave The yield curve isn’t a mechanism that predicts a recession, as in a recession will happen if it inverts - this isn’t true. It’s mainly a warning sign to act, if the FED lowers interest rates and takes action the impending “recession” will not come.

@Hollow Vagabond Back to normal

Okay, you're ripping a Ben Shapiro and stating to obvious expecting me to give you the dub for the argument over changing the entire narrative of what I was saying.

Note that historically, for 6 to 7 decades there was a recession on average 24 months after the yield curve inverted. Every time.

Is it cause and effect? No, but you must admit that this is consistent enough to spark confidence in the common coincidence following such a phenomenon.

@Shockwave In this case it’s different, the yield curve isn’t saying there will be a recession but signalling action must be taken.

It’s what the federal reserve did; hence a recession is not probable anytime soon.

Time will tell. Given the rapid loss of spending I expect we will see the mist rapid recession in US history. Our economy is built on spending and pretty much all spending except for a handful of specific items has essentially dried up.

It’s not so simple.

Its if Bloomberg becomes president we will have a better minimal wage but prices will go up only good for a short time we’ll only get dried up slower

@DrYuriMom The dow jumped 2k.

@Baphomet The business cycle doesn't mean "Capitalism" will collapse.

The trend of growth is upwards, i.e GDP is trending upwards despite the troughs.

Profitibality margins are down however

Not exactly.

You're referring to the 'falling rate of profit'? It's measurements are wrong.

And you forget that capitalism creates the tool of it’s own demise; by uniting workers in a common cause

What would that mean?

@sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ Once profitibality reaches 0 what will happen

You have to admit society evolves

Society goes through stages

Do you think capitalism will last eternally?

The issue with the graph you sent is, it relies on fixed capital only. Over a long period this is a significant difference as technological progress usually increases the amount of fixed capital used in production. In the past the capital needed to create the output was much more simpler than now. This means that measuring fixed capital isn't an valid way to measure all capital; in the past circulating capital was a larger part of the total. So, by not counting it the profit rates attributed to the past become higher.

@Baphomet

Infact, the real rate of return has fallen by 0.5 to 1 points per year since ~1400 CE. So if there truly is a Marxian rate of profit decline, it's occurring *damn slowly*.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3485734

SINT, I never mentioned the DOW. The economy is much bigger than the stock markets. And equating daily fluctuations of the stock market to the overall health of the economy is to argue that weather is climate. They are associated but they are different, and the latter influences the former and not the other way around.

People are not spending money in an economy that is 70% consumer spending.