Message from @sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ

Discord ID: 688116837904678928


2020-03-12 14:24:56 UTC  

Haha

2020-03-12 14:25:04 UTC  

The recent jobless claims have fallen, which would not be expected if we were in a downturn

2020-03-12 14:25:04 UTC  

Adorable

2020-03-12 14:25:26 UTC  

Thanks, I actually understand how the economy processes.

2020-03-12 14:25:51 UTC  

A stock market falling doesn’t necessarily mean there is a recession; in this case it means investors are temporarily feeling bearish due to exogenous reasons.

2020-03-12 14:26:01 UTC  

However the economy doesn’t show any signs so far. Like I said the Feb job reports and this weeks jobless claims falling.

2020-03-12 22:02:43 UTC  

What will happen after the pandemic is gone? Will the normal economy go back or is that too late to invest?

2020-03-13 00:23:45 UTC  

All that you mention are lagging indicators SINT

2020-03-13 00:24:09 UTC  

I think Sophie and I will be proved right

2020-03-13 07:34:02 UTC  

The most reliable indicator of a recession, the yield curve inverting was already a thing more than a few months ago. The stock market is just the icing on the cake and the signature and the date for the clear signal that we'll be going into a recession. It's only inevitable.

Unless you mean to suggest that the Fed yield curve didn't actually predict the last 60 years worth of recessions consistently? @sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ

2020-03-13 08:09:49 UTC  

@Shockwave The yield curve isn’t a mechanism that predicts a recession, as in a recession will happen if it inverts - this isn’t true. It’s mainly a warning sign to act, if the FED lowers interest rates and takes action the impending “recession” will not come.

2020-03-13 08:23:13 UTC  

@Hollow Vagabond Back to normal

2020-03-13 08:33:54 UTC  

Okay, you're ripping a Ben Shapiro and stating to obvious expecting me to give you the dub for the argument over changing the entire narrative of what I was saying.

2020-03-13 08:34:25 UTC  

Note that historically, for 6 to 7 decades there was a recession on average 24 months after the yield curve inverted. Every time.

2020-03-13 08:35:35 UTC  

Is it cause and effect? No, but you must admit that this is consistent enough to spark confidence in the common coincidence following such a phenomenon.

2020-03-13 09:16:04 UTC  

@Shockwave In this case it’s different, the yield curve isn’t saying there will be a recession but signalling action must be taken.

2020-03-13 09:16:42 UTC  

It’s what the federal reserve did; hence a recession is not probable anytime soon.

2020-03-13 14:11:38 UTC  

Time will tell. Given the rapid loss of spending I expect we will see the mist rapid recession in US history. Our economy is built on spending and pretty much all spending except for a handful of specific items has essentially dried up.

2020-03-13 15:35:36 UTC  

It’s not so simple.

2020-03-13 17:19:08 UTC  

Its if Bloomberg becomes president we will have a better minimal wage but prices will go up only good for a short time we’ll only get dried up slower

2020-03-13 20:10:38 UTC  

@DrYuriMom The dow jumped 2k.

2020-03-13 20:26:11 UTC  

@Baphomet The business cycle doesn't mean "Capitalism" will collapse.

2020-03-13 20:26:23 UTC  

The trend of growth is upwards, i.e GDP is trending upwards despite the troughs.

2020-03-13 20:26:34 UTC  

Profitibality margins are down however

2020-03-13 20:26:39 UTC  

Not exactly.

2020-03-13 20:26:50 UTC  

You're referring to the 'falling rate of profit'? It's measurements are wrong.

2020-03-13 20:27:15 UTC  

And you forget that capitalism creates the tool of it’s own demise; by uniting workers in a common cause

2020-03-13 20:27:23 UTC  

What would that mean?

2020-03-13 20:28:58 UTC  

@sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ Once profitibality reaches 0 what will happen

2020-03-13 20:29:05 UTC  

You have to admit society evolves

2020-03-13 20:29:12 UTC  

Society goes through stages

2020-03-13 20:29:45 UTC  

Do you think capitalism will last eternally?

2020-03-13 20:30:36 UTC  

The issue with the graph you sent is, it relies on fixed capital only. Over a long period this is a significant difference as technological progress usually increases the amount of fixed capital used in production. In the past the capital needed to create the output was much more simpler than now. This means that measuring fixed capital isn't an valid way to measure all capital; in the past circulating capital was a larger part of the total. So, by not counting it the profit rates attributed to the past become higher.

2020-03-13 20:32:31 UTC  
2020-03-13 20:33:24 UTC  

Infact, the real rate of return has fallen by 0.5 to 1 points per year since ~1400 CE. So if there truly is a Marxian rate of profit decline, it's occurring *damn slowly*.

2020-03-13 23:44:21 UTC  

SINT, I never mentioned the DOW. The economy is much bigger than the stock markets. And equating daily fluctuations of the stock market to the overall health of the economy is to argue that weather is climate. They are associated but they are different, and the latter influences the former and not the other way around.

2020-03-13 23:44:55 UTC  

People are not spending money in an economy that is 70% consumer spending.

2020-03-13 23:46:08 UTC  

Travel, cruises, movies, restaurants, etc have all plummeted. People are already being laid off. People affected, and those worried they are next to be affected, will not spend.

2020-03-13 23:46:53 UTC  

And then there are the trillions of corporate bonds that stand ready to explode if this does not resolve in the extremely near term.

2020-03-13 23:47:26 UTC  

Oh, and the break down of trade. Nations proclaiming bans on exports. Nations who have lost the capacity to manufacture.