is this one in general?

hello and welcome to data

So based on that, it looks like there might be a blue wave?

yes, but again, it can be minimized

What makes the midterms flip to the opposite party of the President that was elected before it?

midterms are seen as referendums on the ruling party

the opposition party usually has higher turnout because their voters are motivated to stop the ruling party's agenda

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/VA

Virginia election data

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0

D+2.9: R 236; D 199
D+5.9: R 231; D 204
D+7.9: R 225 ; D 210
D+9.9: R 218; D 217
D+12.9: R 196; D 239

I have read that the Libertarians caused the Democrat Pickup in 2016

Which Democrat pickup?

Trump probably would have won in New Hampshire and Nevada were it not for the Libertarians

he also could have won Minnesota

I doubt that

The type of people who voted for gary weren't potential MAGA guys, I can tell you that.

why not ?

Trump has libertarian appeal

Styxhexenhammer666 was originally planning to vote for Johnson but decided to choose Trump

they were more the lulzy "haha fuck trump and clinton" type of libertarians, the people who say and are proud of being third party for the sake of being third party.

@FLanon yeah I'm familiar with those types

I think the vast majority of those people wouldn't have voted otherwise

but I think there are people who voted for Johnson who would have been willing to vote for Trump if the libertarian presence wasn't as strong

Now if Ron Paul or someone of that nature was running on the Libertarian ticket, I'd be humming a different tune. That may have stolen votes.

also, Evan McMullin stole enough votes in Minnesota that you could say it would have gone to Trump otherwise

the Never Trump movement and the mormon cia candidate stole Minnesota

hivemind

by a margin of 10,000 if every McMullin vote went to Trump he would've won MN, but I doubt that 6/7 McMullin voters would've went for Trump

NeverTrumpers, the such

It's been proven at this point that McMullin proved Minnesota to swing to the Democrats, by the good old "Nader stole Florida." metric.

I can't tell if it's for better or for worse that the USA didn't have a Canadian-style Reform Party takeover, on that note.

The Progressive Conservatives in Canada were essentially replaced by their Ross Perot supporting counterparts in Canada, due to the fact that electing the Reform Party of Canada required electing a Reform legislature.

In other words, Ross Perot lost because he could never control Congress. Reform Canada won because precisely the opposite was true--Commons elects the Prime Minister.

But if Ross Perot became President in 1992 or 1996, would we have a Justin Trudeau like monster today?

The Canadian Tories, formed by the merger of the Reform/CA party with the Prog. Cons., have been failing to outlaw abortion and gay marriage pretty much continuously for decades.

And they can actually just suspend human rights and ban those things in Canada, as their Supreme Court is weak.

And they didn't even disclose Canadian immigration stats until they were leaked by dissidents under Trudeau

So no one even knew it was an issue.

And on top of that, they ratified NAFTA--the treaty they were founded to oppose--and joined the WTO.

That said, they didn't even get into office until Stephen Harper. So they basically had to repeal all of that.

This is interesting Nuke. I had read Alberta is very Conservative. How do they feel about being in such a Liberal mess? Is there any talk of session?

Alberta is already under a left-wing Socialist government because the right-wing parties were too busy infighting with their 60+% majority

It's actually a big part of why Trudeau was elected: Conservatives were extremely demoralized by being defeated by a landslide in Alberta.

The right-wing party was able to defeat the moderate "Progressive Conservatives," but the right lost over 20 points overall from all of the infighting, leaving them with a feeble simple majority between both parties--and because Canada's electoral system is a two-party-optimized FPTP system like the USA has...that meant the most united party, the New Democrats, won.

The New Democrats won 40% of the Alberta vote too, which gave them a huge amount of momentum until the CBC--Canada's equivalent of PBS or the BBC--actually began encouraging NDP voters to vote Liberal to stop the Tories from being reelected.

if only Canada had a two-party system

I wish the US actually got involved in foreign internal affairs so we could condemn the CBC for that, or do many things really.

And yeah, Alberta's feuding right-wing parties actually merged in 2017 to prevent another election like that.

Alberta 2019 could be a majority vote for the United Conservatives, which might be the first in recent Canadian history.

Ah, nope, Manitoba has a right-wing majority government as it is.

And so does Saskatchewan.

Alright, I think the best say to determine which party's gonna win which state, we'll have to look at Voter proportions

Number of Self Described & Registered Indepnendents, Democrats, Republicans, etc.

So we can determine which states we can win

where can we find that data

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html

here, I guess

I don't think we've gone in depth of party financials yet

http://theweek.com/speedreads/752743/dnc-reportedly-dead-broke-rnc-nearly-40-million

DNC has 6.5 million dollars on hand and are 6.1 million dollars in debt

400k away from insolvency

The RNC has 38 million dollars without a single cent of debt

there could be something to this

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/some-democrats-arent-buying-the-dncs-new-50-state-strategy/article/2647896

In a state this purple with the national consensus (even if it is shrinking) still leaning towards the Dems, I think this is a great sign of things to come.

What state are you referring to?

FL

Oh. I thought Florida had been slowly trending Red

it's referring to the senate election we have which most likely will be current Governor Rick Scott and Senator Bill Nelson

It did in 2016, but that's tricky

Florida is the swingiest swing state ever

But I thought in general the trend at the state and other Federal Government level was towards Republican there. It's a very slow but steady trend because Florida is so divided

FL's R at the state legislature level (so far) but extremely swing in Federal politics

Like it will be a Swing State for a long long time but we aren't losing ground there

Blue counties are getting bluer (Miami)

Red counties are getting redder (Pensacola)

it's extremely hard to tell what Florida will do long term

That is happening every where I tjink

People are self spring

we've got to make the best of it, definitely

I made a list displaying the percentage change needed to take each state from democrats(2016 election)

.37 New Hampshire
1.5 Minnesota
2.42 Nevada
2.96 Main
4.9 Colorado
5.32 Virginia
8.22 New Mexico
10.98 Oregon
11.37 Delaware
13.7 Connecticut
14.1 New Jersey
15.51 Rhode Island
16.2 Washington
17.07 Illinois
22.49 New York
25.45 Vermont
26.42 Maryland
27.2 Massachusetts
30.11 California
32.19 Hawaii
86.4 Washington D.C.

Let us not flee from leftist degeneracy to red territory, but make uncertain territory our home. So that growing cities do not make the mistakes we see so often in history.

Man If we would have been able to hold Virginia we would have an Electoral College Lock with the Rust Belt now Purple

Commiefornia splitting into 2 or 3 states would be golden. Jefferson and East CA would not go blue.

@Sacramento another way of looking at this data is to subtract the 2.1% that Cunt Face won the Popular Vote by.

So like Nevada votes .32% More Democrat then the rest of the country. And New Hampshire votes about 1.7% more Republican then the rest of the country etc..

I feel bad for the Republicans living in California. There state is turning into the third world and there is literally nothing they can do.

If Trump gets 50% of the Popular Vote in 2020 New Hampshire and Minnesota will flip. And Maine and Nevada will be extremely close.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/214091/trump-disapproval-rooted-character-concerns.aspx

lol, one of the biggest reasons I support Trump is his personality