Message from @🎃Boo-ton🎃
Discord ID: 402231367162921010
is this one in general?
hello and welcome to data
So based on that, it looks like there might be a blue wave?
yes, but again, it can be minimized
What makes the midterms flip to the opposite party of the President that was elected before it?
midterms are seen as referendums on the ruling party
the opposition party usually has higher turnout because their voters are motivated to stop the ruling party's agenda
Virginia election data
D+2.9: R 236; D 199
D+5.9: R 231; D 204
D+7.9: R 225 ; D 210
D+9.9: R 218; D 217
D+12.9: R 196; D 239
I have read that the Libertarians caused the Democrat Pickup in 2016
Which Democrat pickup?
Trump probably would have won in New Hampshire and Nevada were it not for the Libertarians
he also could have won Minnesota
I doubt that
The type of people who voted for gary weren't potential MAGA guys, I can tell you that.
why not ?
Trump has libertarian appeal
Styxhexenhammer666 was originally planning to vote for Johnson but decided to choose Trump
they were more the lulzy "haha fuck trump and clinton" type of libertarians, the people who say and are proud of being third party for the sake of being third party.
@FLanon yeah I'm familiar with those types
I think the vast majority of those people wouldn't have voted otherwise
but I think there are people who voted for Johnson who would have been willing to vote for Trump if the libertarian presence wasn't as strong
Now if Ron Paul or someone of that nature was running on the Libertarian ticket, I'd be humming a different tune. That may have stolen votes.
also, Evan McMullin stole enough votes in Minnesota that you could say it would have gone to Trump otherwise