If you weight the more favourable polls more it's 10%+

If less it's more 5-6

So it's around 8-9% clear average

The spread is getting wider

This makes the result less certain

That comres poll 2k posted shows not much changed, if anything brexit just gained more

Boris needs to agree a path that gets to an election, which means he'll need to cuck on the delay and then once the election is locked in, use it to his advantage

Plus comres have had labour and tory almost level for the past month

Brexit Party gaining is Conservative losing

They are typically the least favourable

Comres typically predict more BP support

Which detracts from their tory figure

Well, welcome to the hell which is the judiciary activism, run while you still have the legs to carry you

I wouldn't bother paying any attention to the current polls, they have no means to accurately represent how people will vote right now.

If he does get a deal, however, and gets parliament to pass it, then all bets are off - no fucking idea what will happen at that point

I'd rather look at them then make prediction based on my own biases

Chances of that are zero to none, however

It's a check on my own thinking

yeah, but that's what the polls are currently doing, basing things on their own bias

Which is why I look at aggregate

Poll bias are typically based on their methodology

And they will have a different bias to my own if they have one.

even aggregated, these are some of the strangest political times in the history of our nation.

An online poll will over-report labour/lib dem

A telephone poll will over-report tory

Yes they are eccles

Which is why there is a reasonable balance

So it's something

Yep, well as long as people ditch this "muhtorymajority" based on 0-8% poll lead

That made me quite cross 🙂

It's more based on every agregator with those numbers predicting a Tory majority

which way do we think an election would go right now?

Boris is the most popular UK politician

His tory is polling the highest

hung parliament, aj949

labour/libdem/snp coalition

I'll go with light majority with the help of the DUP

naa, i don't think that would happen with lab/lib/snp

without a brexit party election pact, tories are fucked

yeah, but the remain parties wouldn't be able to band together

i think boris is holding fire until he knows the result of the renegotiation