Message from @Joshu
Discord ID: 626348576645054465
Not a surprise, it's comes, they have been polls close with them for ages
There are some brainlets on here insisting a Tory majority, Joshu
However the rest of them by all aggregators show comres as the least favourable
Opinium was most
Most aggregators show a poll aggregate as tory majority
Aggregators are notoriously unreliable as they fail to model real world voting accurately in these unusual times
Weighting the least favourable polls more, at least 1 shows the need for DUP partnership
They need a clear 10% lead for a majority, if not more
That's just the way the system works
They are around 8% clear right now
By all aggregators
Does look like "abolish the supreme court" needs adding to the list of reforms needed, along with PR, written constitution, and abolishment of the lords
If you weight the more favourable polls more it's 10%+
If less it's more 5-6
So it's around 8-9% clear average
The spread is getting wider
This makes the result less certain
That comres poll 2k posted shows not much changed, if anything brexit just gained more
Boris needs to agree a path that gets to an election, which means he'll need to cuck on the delay and then once the election is locked in, use it to his advantage
Brexit Party gaining is Conservative losing
They are typically the least favourable
Comres typically predict more BP support
Which detracts from their tory figure
Well, welcome to the hell which is the judiciary activism, run while you still have the legs to carry you
I wouldn't bother paying any attention to the current polls, they have no means to accurately represent how people will vote right now.
If he does get a deal, however, and gets parliament to pass it, then all bets are off - no fucking idea what will happen at that point
I'd rather look at them then make prediction based on my own biases
Chances of that are zero to none, however
It's a check on my own thinking
yeah, but that's what the polls are currently doing, basing things on their own bias
Which is why I look at aggregate
Poll bias are typically based on their methodology
And they will have a different bias to my own if they have one.
even aggregated, these are some of the strangest political times in the history of our nation.
An online poll will over-report labour/lib dem
A telephone poll will over-report tory
Yes they are eccles
Which is why there is a reasonable balance
So it's something