> dozens more where the dem is favored

nah

Yes, I can list them if you’d like

We've got a 50% chance of winning the House.

Sherrod Brown beating his wife is really starting to show in the polls. We have a chance in Ohio.
https://etholytics.com/ohio-senate-projection-model/

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2d7GNa

zakattack04 just sent me this 'prediction'

Lean R: TX
Tilt R: MO, ND, TN

Tilt D: FL, IN
Lean D: AZ, NV, MT
Likely D: WV

Everything else is safe

What's up with your retarded predictions?

You mean realistic predictions? Nothing else will flip realistically barring new scandals dropping. I could move Menedez to from Safe to Likely D, but there’s honestly no way he will lose while 4 out 5 republican seats in NJ are going down, some of them bigly.

And Baldwin and Brown are leading by double digits in almost every recent poll. Scott is losing ground, unfortunately, and I think Gillum will narrowly drag Nelson across the finish line.

The vast majority of polls indicate that Sinema will win and has the momentum

Manchin is virtually safe and every poll shows him curb-stomping Morrisey

>AZ
>lean D

Lean D may be too generous to republicans

After Sinema's lying scandal, it's stupid.

She's pretty consistently been in the margin of error, too.

Plus two polls have even shown McSally in the lead this month anyway, even before the lying scandal

We barely managed to win this seat in 2012 despite having a much more friendly political environment.

And Sinema has positioned herself well as a centrist Democrat

Only CNN, Fox News (RV-poll only), and ProgressNowAZ polls have shown Sinema escape the margin of error.

Oh, and Emerson.

The great majority of close races break against the party that holds the whites house during wave years. There is no reason to expect 2018 to be any different

Memerson put Sinema just outside of the margin of error.

Yeah and also showed Donnelly +12. Don’t pay much attention to Emerson

I wouldn't call 2006, 2010, or 2014 normal.

2002 and 1998 were abnormal too.

2018 isn’t going to be

2018 isn't going to be normal, either.

That's right.

The tendency is for there to be no tendency.

Therefore, we cannot rely on such a vague metric as a "Presidential disadvantage," especially not with Trump emphasizing every special election for the last two years.

@Yellowhammer 2012 was friendly to the democrats though

Hillary only did so well in Arizona because she specifically targeted it, spent a shit ton of money on it, and managed to win over a decent portion of Romney voters

McSally is on the ballot this time, not Trump

Those same Romney to Hillary voters should be willing to vote McSally

If the candidate was Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio you'd have more of a race

Unlike Obama in 2010 and 2014, Trump is actually putting in a solid effort to win the midterms

I remember being a progressive in 2010. Obama wasn't as concerned about the midterms as Trump is now

Also, Obama's base consisted of a lot of young and minority voters who showed up in 2008 but not in 2010

Whereas Trump's base has lots of reliable voters

I think it will be a Purple Year, not a blue one

And in a Purple Wave, I'd say we win states like Arizona

Did you pay attention to the safe R house seat in AZ that we barely hung onto in the special election last spring?
The swing against the Republican Party in AZ is substantial