Message from @Nuke
Discord ID: 494899204083417139
every pessimist claims they're a realist
That’s true. There are already almost a dozen seats that are as good as gone, and dozens more where the dem is favored
> dozens more where the dem is favored
nah
Yes, I can list them if you’d like
We've got a 50% chance of winning the House.
Sherrod Brown beating his wife is really starting to show in the polls. We have a chance in Ohio.
https://etholytics.com/ohio-senate-projection-model/
zakattack04 just sent me this 'prediction'
Lean R: TX
Tilt R: MO, ND, TN
Tilt D: FL, IN
Lean D: AZ, NV, MT
Likely D: WV
Everything else is safe
What's up with your retarded predictions?
You mean realistic predictions? Nothing else will flip realistically barring new scandals dropping. I could move Menedez to from Safe to Likely D, but there’s honestly no way he will lose while 4 out 5 republican seats in NJ are going down, some of them bigly.
And Baldwin and Brown are leading by double digits in almost every recent poll. Scott is losing ground, unfortunately, and I think Gillum will narrowly drag Nelson across the finish line.
The vast majority of polls indicate that Sinema will win and has the momentum
Manchin is virtually safe and every poll shows him curb-stomping Morrisey
>AZ
>lean D
Lean D may be too generous to republicans
After Sinema's lying scandal, it's stupid.
She's pretty consistently been in the margin of error, too.
Plus two polls have even shown McSally in the lead this month anyway, even before the lying scandal
We barely managed to win this seat in 2012 despite having a much more friendly political environment.
And Sinema has positioned herself well as a centrist Democrat
Only CNN, Fox News (RV-poll only), and ProgressNowAZ polls have shown Sinema escape the margin of error.
The great majority of close races break against the party that holds the whites house during wave years. There is no reason to expect 2018 to be any different
Memerson put Sinema just outside of the margin of error.
Yeah and also showed Donnelly +12. Don’t pay much attention to Emerson
I wouldn't call 2006, 2010, or 2014 normal.
2002 and 1998 were abnormal too.
2018 isn’t going to be
2018 isn't going to be normal, either.
That's right.
The tendency is for there to be no tendency.
Therefore, we cannot rely on such a vague metric as a "Presidential disadvantage," especially not with Trump emphasizing every special election for the last two years.
@Yellowhammer 2012 was friendly to the democrats though
Hillary only did so well in Arizona because she specifically targeted it, spent a shit ton of money on it, and managed to win over a decent portion of Romney voters
McSally is on the ballot this time, not Trump
Those same Romney to Hillary voters should be willing to vote McSally
If the candidate was Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio you'd have more of a race
Unlike Obama in 2010 and 2014, Trump is actually putting in a solid effort to win the midterms
I remember being a progressive in 2010. Obama wasn't as concerned about the midterms as Trump is now
Also, Obama's base consisted of a lot of young and minority voters who showed up in 2008 but not in 2010
Whereas Trump's base has lots of reliable voters
I think it will be a Purple Year, not a blue one