What did 2014 pollsters mean by this? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_capito_vs_tennant-4088.html

Really makes me think. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/va/virginia_senate_gillespie_vs_warner-4255.html

Huh. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ks/kansas_senate_roberts_vs_orman-5216.html

Beto can still win, right? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/tx/texas_senate_cornyn_vs_alameel-5011.html

Epic https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html

This bodes well for Donnelly. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

No way WI is competitive in 2018. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html

Just felt like dropping a white pill.

thanks for that

While it's important to remember never to *count* on scenarios like these, it's also important that these things do happen somewhat commonly in politics.

Yeah

I think it's pretty much a-given that we're going to over preform in the rust-belt.

Well, we hope so.

We can't take anything for granted.

minimum number of rallies I think Trump should do in each state before November 6

FL: 3
MT: 2
OH: 2
AZ: 2
TN: 1
WI: 1
IN: 1
ND: 1
PA: 1
MN: 1
MI: 1

I definitely hope he blitzes a few states at the last minute. WV, MO, IN, and ND should all get a rally in the final two days.

MI and PA would be a waste, shift those to other states

idk if FL helps in the same way

Scott has a segment of Clinton voters he will win - Trump rallying might drive them away

most important are the 6 states with competitive races that he carried by 18% or more (MO, IN, MT, WV, ND, TN)

and then he has to upstage Beto's rally in TX

It's not just Scott, it's the governor races

and appearances would absolutely help, it's about location, there's plenty of areas in FL, the panhandle, Lee County, etc where Trump's appearance will definitely drive up turnout.

Why won’t he go to Ohio?

He probably will do Ohio rallies before November 6. More than one

OH-Gov is probably aiming for a different coalition than the one Trump drives

I'm not sure DeWine wants to interact much with Trump

the Based Black Man from <@&414591534621786133> replied to me

Oh yeah? Well I touched him, TWICE

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/8zZbY8

Red Storm Crystal ball ratings

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/8yr7ol

My map looks more like this. I'm thinking we overperform in the rust-belt. Get 1% or 2% victories in MO, FL and IN, etc. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/awk7oa

Uncertain about NV and AZ.

I still think Ohio is competitive

It could be, but I'd give the incumbent a strong advantage. If we do really well in the rust belt then it's going red after WV and WI but before MI and PA. But if I were betting money, I'd bet blue.

Dude he’s under scandal now, it’s hurt his ratings

He has a lot more money than his literal who opponent. https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=OHS1

And the max margin of error I'm willing to apply to the region is 10 points, and he's up by 15. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/oh/ohio_senate_renacci_vs_brown-6331.html

If Rennaci can bring him down to Manchin levels in polling then I think we can flip it though.