^ tbh

Don’t bank on it. The average voter is not paying close attention to these sorts of things.
It will damage their chances significantly but may not necessarily doom them

Manchin has a solid enough lead that he can probably survive fallout from a no vote

If the average voter _isn't_ paying attention to the Kavanaugh vote, I doubt West Virginia will vote for Manchin anyway.

yeah I mentioned the Ford Allegations to my mom earlier today

she never even heard of them before I mentioned them

Ehh I know a lot of people following it, all with their own opinion

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swastika,_Ontario

https://grrrgraphics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/corey_stewart_kaine_cartoon.jpg

Ben should make one for every GOP Senate candidate

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fucking,_Austria

Tester and Donnely said they're voting no,

@lancerelliott {CARTHAGE} cut that antagonistic know-it-all attitude out. I know you like feeling like a special snowflake who "is too smart for the circlejerk", but restrain your ego

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Congress/comments/9k49vg/republican_senators_susan_collins_lisa_murkowski/

<@&462745116768075776>

It seems that all of the reply activity on Twitter is on the Senators in 2016's "Blue Wall" etc.

Very high activity on @SenFirstLast accounts as well, as they're official govt accounts

http://theohiostar.com/2018/09/26/sherrod-brown-votes-for-increased-legal-illegal-immigration-to-compete-with-middle-class-workers-he-claims-to-support/

What did 2014 pollsters mean by this? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_capito_vs_tennant-4088.html

Really makes me think. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/va/virginia_senate_gillespie_vs_warner-4255.html

Huh. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ks/kansas_senate_roberts_vs_orman-5216.html

Beto can still win, right? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/tx/texas_senate_cornyn_vs_alameel-5011.html

Epic https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html

This bodes well for Donnelly. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/in/indiana_senate_young_vs_bayh-6003.html

No way WI is competitive in 2018. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html

Just felt like dropping a white pill.

thanks for that

While it's important to remember never to *count* on scenarios like these, it's also important that these things do happen somewhat commonly in politics.

Yeah

I think it's pretty much a-given that we're going to over preform in the rust-belt.

Well, we hope so.

We can't take anything for granted.

minimum number of rallies I think Trump should do in each state before November 6

FL: 3
MT: 2
OH: 2
AZ: 2
TN: 1
WI: 1
IN: 1
ND: 1
PA: 1
MN: 1
MI: 1

I definitely hope he blitzes a few states at the last minute. WV, MO, IN, and ND should all get a rally in the final two days.

MI and PA would be a waste, shift those to other states

idk if FL helps in the same way

Scott has a segment of Clinton voters he will win - Trump rallying might drive them away

most important are the 6 states with competitive races that he carried by 18% or more (MO, IN, MT, WV, ND, TN)

and then he has to upstage Beto's rally in TX

It's not just Scott, it's the governor races