Plus two polls have even shown McSally in the lead this month anyway, even before the lying scandal

We barely managed to win this seat in 2012 despite having a much more friendly political environment.

And Sinema has positioned herself well as a centrist Democrat

Only CNN, Fox News (RV-poll only), and ProgressNowAZ polls have shown Sinema escape the margin of error.

Oh, and Emerson.

The great majority of close races break against the party that holds the whites house during wave years. There is no reason to expect 2018 to be any different

Memerson put Sinema just outside of the margin of error.

Yeah and also showed Donnelly +12. Don’t pay much attention to Emerson

I wouldn't call 2006, 2010, or 2014 normal.

2002 and 1998 were abnormal too.

2018 isn’t going to be

2018 isn't going to be normal, either.

That's right.

The tendency is for there to be no tendency.

Therefore, we cannot rely on such a vague metric as a "Presidential disadvantage," especially not with Trump emphasizing every special election for the last two years.

@Yellowhammer 2012 was friendly to the democrats though

Hillary only did so well in Arizona because she specifically targeted it, spent a shit ton of money on it, and managed to win over a decent portion of Romney voters

McSally is on the ballot this time, not Trump

Those same Romney to Hillary voters should be willing to vote McSally

If the candidate was Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio you'd have more of a race

Unlike Obama in 2010 and 2014, Trump is actually putting in a solid effort to win the midterms

I remember being a progressive in 2010. Obama wasn't as concerned about the midterms as Trump is now

Also, Obama's base consisted of a lot of young and minority voters who showed up in 2008 but not in 2010

Whereas Trump's base has lots of reliable voters

I think it will be a Purple Year, not a blue one

And in a Purple Wave, I'd say we win states like Arizona

Did you pay attention to the safe R house seat in AZ that we barely hung onto in the special election last spring?
The swing against the Republican Party in AZ is substantial

AZ-08? This discord was following that one actively

We even tried to contact Debbie Lesko on campaign strategy

It was a turnout issue

It wasn't a "swing against the GOP" in terms of Republican voters turning Democrat

It was Republican voters not participating because it was a special and democratic voters participating because they are deranged and energized

https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/09/27/poll-patrick-morrisey-and-joe-manchin-tied-in-west-virginia-senate-race/

🆙 | **Barron Trump leveled up!**

insider, but looks like the first tie

>commissioned by 1892 Polling for Morrisey’s campaign
and into the trash it goes.

better than blackpilling over polls that show things the other way around

I mean we should have a standard.

Throw out the internals.

It would be good to see a non-internal have numbers like these, but the thing is that the internals from what we've seen have been incredibly unreliable. I mean there was that Libertarian commissioned internal which showed Gary Johnson slightly in the lead in New Mexico.

We already know from non-internal polls that Rich is in second.

Though only non-L internal polls and one RPI poll show this.