McSally is on the ballot this time, not Trump

Those same Romney to Hillary voters should be willing to vote McSally

If the candidate was Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio you'd have more of a race

Unlike Obama in 2010 and 2014, Trump is actually putting in a solid effort to win the midterms

I remember being a progressive in 2010. Obama wasn't as concerned about the midterms as Trump is now

Also, Obama's base consisted of a lot of young and minority voters who showed up in 2008 but not in 2010

Whereas Trump's base has lots of reliable voters

I think it will be a Purple Year, not a blue one

And in a Purple Wave, I'd say we win states like Arizona

Did you pay attention to the safe R house seat in AZ that we barely hung onto in the special election last spring?
The swing against the Republican Party in AZ is substantial

AZ-08? This discord was following that one actively

We even tried to contact Debbie Lesko on campaign strategy

It was a turnout issue

It wasn't a "swing against the GOP" in terms of Republican voters turning Democrat

It was Republican voters not participating because it was a special and democratic voters participating because they are deranged and energized

https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/09/27/poll-patrick-morrisey-and-joe-manchin-tied-in-west-virginia-senate-race/

🆙 | **Barron Trump leveled up!**

insider, but looks like the first tie

>commissioned by 1892 Polling for Morrisey’s campaign
and into the trash it goes.

better than blackpilling over polls that show things the other way around

I mean we should have a standard.

Throw out the internals.

It would be good to see a non-internal have numbers like these, but the thing is that the internals from what we've seen have been incredibly unreliable. I mean there was that Libertarian commissioned internal which showed Gary Johnson slightly in the lead in New Mexico.

We already know from non-internal polls that Rich is in second.

Though only non-L internal polls and one RPI poll show this.

Republicans have somewhat decent internal polling and data, but this just seems like cherry picking.

Tomorrow is going to be really important for the Senate. If a "blue dog" votes against Kavanaugh we need to crucify him. If someone in a competitive but not red state votes against him then we need to show it to independents and moderates.

>tfw no state has more based Senators than SC.

>what is Arkansas

>what is Texas

Stick a fork in her, she's done.. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/19/claire-mccaskill-says-shes-voting-no-brett-kavanaugh-president-trumps-supreme-court-nominee/1363605002/

🆙 | **Amsel leveled up!**

Most of them are done

I don’t know if it will affect my state tho

RIP McCaskill 💀

And Manchin if he shuts down Kavanaugh

If Manchin votes no, he's out.

^ tbh

Don’t bank on it. The average voter is not paying close attention to these sorts of things.
It will damage their chances significantly but may not necessarily doom them

Manchin has a solid enough lead that he can probably survive fallout from a no vote

If the average voter _isn't_ paying attention to the Kavanaugh vote, I doubt West Virginia will vote for Manchin anyway.

yeah I mentioned the Ford Allegations to my mom earlier today