Message from @Julien Blanc
Discord ID: 494927238794313754
2018 isn't going to be normal, either.
That's right.
The tendency is for there to be no tendency.
Therefore, we cannot rely on such a vague metric as a "Presidential disadvantage," especially not with Trump emphasizing every special election for the last two years.
@Yellowhammer 2012 was friendly to the democrats though
Hillary only did so well in Arizona because she specifically targeted it, spent a shit ton of money on it, and managed to win over a decent portion of Romney voters
McSally is on the ballot this time, not Trump
Those same Romney to Hillary voters should be willing to vote McSally
If the candidate was Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio you'd have more of a race
Unlike Obama in 2010 and 2014, Trump is actually putting in a solid effort to win the midterms
I remember being a progressive in 2010. Obama wasn't as concerned about the midterms as Trump is now
Also, Obama's base consisted of a lot of young and minority voters who showed up in 2008 but not in 2010
Whereas Trump's base has lots of reliable voters
I think it will be a Purple Year, not a blue one
And in a Purple Wave, I'd say we win states like Arizona
Did you pay attention to the safe R house seat in AZ that we barely hung onto in the special election last spring?
The swing against the Republican Party in AZ is substantial
AZ-08? This discord was following that one actively
We even tried to contact Debbie Lesko on campaign strategy
It was a turnout issue
It wasn't a "swing against the GOP" in terms of Republican voters turning Democrat
It was Republican voters not participating because it was a special and democratic voters participating because they are deranged and energized
insider, but looks like the first tie
>commissioned by 1892 Polling for Morrisey’s campaign
and into the trash it goes.
better than blackpilling over polls that show things the other way around
I mean we should have a standard.
Throw out the internals.
It would be good to see a non-internal have numbers like these, but the thing is that the internals from what we've seen have been incredibly unreliable. I mean there was that Libertarian commissioned internal which showed Gary Johnson slightly in the lead in New Mexico.
We already know from non-internal polls that Rich is in second.
Though only non-L internal polls and one RPI poll show this.
Republicans have somewhat decent internal polling and data, but this just seems like cherry picking.
Tomorrow is going to be really important for the Senate. If a "blue dog" votes against Kavanaugh we need to crucify him. If someone in a competitive but not red state votes against him then we need to show it to independents and moderates.
>tfw no state has more based Senators than SC.
>what is Arkansas
>what is Texas
Most of them are done
I don’t know if it will affect my state tho
RIP McCaskill 💀
And Manchin if he shuts down Kavanaugh