so yes, demographics and district characteristics matter hugely. your single citation doesn't disprove that.

in fact, they're the single most important factor

touchy

not at all, dude. lol. i'm rebutting you.

I'm curious because I want to redistrict LA-2 so that it switches to the GOP.

@[Lex] rhodesiaboo has some redeeming factors

Autism is a helpful force, Lex.

@Ghawk Do you have an estimate for how big a CD should be following the 2020 census?

@Nuke I had a map of states that I knew for a fact were going to lose congressional districts, states that were going to gain one, and states that may gain one, but I would have to see where I even put that.

Alright thanks.

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES

AZ-02: Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat
FL-27: Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat
CO-06: Tossup to Tilt Democrat

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/MK2LkmV

if NJ 0-5 goes blue, it's time for the district to be redrawn

the far eastern sliver

should not control an entire big district

Hoping we can make Iowa completely red

It is more likely to be completely blue. Loebsack is completely safe, Blum will lose by almost 20 points, and Young is a tossup

Even Steve King is not invulnerable

Though he’ll probably win

Let's not focus on probabilities and focus on the activism, alright?

yep

but Iowa completely blue? lmao you gotta stop spending too much time on US Election Atlas @Yellowhammer

It’s very unlikely, but more likely than all red @Julien Blanc

King is awesome he should run for senate

@Pielover19 a while back we made a 'best case scenario' for the House

what's your new 'best case scenario'

Wait a minute, lemme craft it up.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/vKwk4wK

@Julien Blanc

Mediocre.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/gKZjMGK

This is the real BEST CASE SCENARIO

Best case in virtually every district

>Tfw trying to make a new Kavanaugh Coattail prediction but 270ToWin's share button is broken

Just take a screenshot I guess

https://twitter.com/AndrewHClark/status/1047942756860145664

Let’s hope this is a real trend and that it sticks!

thing with IBD/TIPP is that they had it as a tie, then just a short while later they jumped it up to D+11

Doesn’t seem that reliable in that case

If that IBD/TIPP poll translated to the results in the midterms, we would get about 237 house seats, or in other words, a net gain of 2 seats.