North Carolina

Master List:

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/#!

But yeah I think they thought the amount of women that would vote Clinton would mirror the amount of blacks that voted Obama

But the shift was relatively minimal

It's really interesting seeing the shift of swing states, where some states become more safe R/D and others drift into swing territory.

Political polarization

@FLanon I'm actually working on a video rn about 2016 Election Voter Demographics, where I'll break down who voted for who, turnout rates, and so on.

We're never going to see a 1964, 1972, or 1984 ever again.

Black turnout dropped significantly.

Hey, you never know. You say that, but people seriously thought Trump winning would not happen either.

I don't see it happening

It's just political polarization

People are going to go pretty hard on party line now

There'd have to be a 3rd party that would split one of the party's vote, allowing the other main party to win the plurality. Aka Ross Perot situation

Yeah, that's the only way I see it happening

Ideologically, there's not going to be a Reagan Democrats situation again.

The difference is nearly diametric at this point

I was a Trump fan but I didn't see Trump winning to be honest, I was really surprised when he won

Me neither

I thought this nation could never elect a man like him again

I was hoping on holding Nevada, which would have edged Trump out. Penn. Michigan, and Wisconsin were not on my radar for flipping.

Well, I'll retcon what I said actually, there *is* going to be a sort of Reagan Democrats situation in the rust belt white working class voting for Rs as the dems abandon whites for minority votes.

6 hours until the decision

But they'll just be straight up right wing and not just moderates at that point

What decision?

The immigration bill

It's Big

Trump's having an address to Congress

Yeah Trump Democrats will emerge out of the Rust Belt, in Minnesota. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Or have already

well if Trump focuses on Trade and Immigration this summer, yeah they will come out

Another thing to consider is the slow death of unions as right to work continues to rise

what do you mean?

Right to work depresses Dem turnout significantly

Swing States: Out with Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado. In with Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Union workers don't have anything to vote for so they stay home

Or vote R

If they leave the union and vote on non-union issues

In Wisconsin, after Right to Work was implemented, dem turnout was lowered by 3.5%

and considering Trump had a similar total vote to Romney, the dems staying home won him the election, and some dems flipping made up for the Rs who had too many character issues with Trump to vote for him