Message from @GavinTheViking
Discord ID: 458646892130205717
Link order: Penn., Michigan, Wisconsin
Those are the polls of the 2016 election
Probably thought the Obama effect would carry over
North Carolina
Master List:
But yeah I think they thought the amount of women that would vote Clinton would mirror the amount of blacks that voted Obama
But the shift was relatively minimal
It's really interesting seeing the shift of swing states, where some states become more safe R/D and others drift into swing territory.
Political polarization
@FLanon I'm actually working on a video rn about 2016 Election Voter Demographics, where I'll break down who voted for who, turnout rates, and so on.
We're never going to see a 1964, 1972, or 1984 ever again.
Black turnout dropped significantly.
Hey, you never know. You say that, but people seriously thought Trump winning would not happen either.
I don't see it happening
It's just political polarization
People are going to go pretty hard on party line now
There'd have to be a 3rd party that would split one of the party's vote, allowing the other main party to win the plurality. Aka Ross Perot situation
Yeah, that's the only way I see it happening
Ideologically, there's not going to be a Reagan Democrats situation again.
The difference is nearly diametric at this point
I was a Trump fan but I didn't see Trump winning to be honest, I was really surprised when he won
Me neither
I thought this nation could never elect a man like him again
I was hoping on holding Nevada, which would have edged Trump out. Penn. Michigan, and Wisconsin were not on my radar for flipping.
Well, I'll retcon what I said actually, there *is* going to be a sort of Reagan Democrats situation in the rust belt white working class voting for Rs as the dems abandon whites for minority votes.
6 hours until the decision
But they'll just be straight up right wing and not just moderates at that point
What decision?
The immigration bill
It's Big
Trump's having an address to Congress
Yeah Trump Democrats will emerge out of the Rust Belt, in Minnesota. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Or have already
well if Trump focuses on Trade and Immigration this summer, yeah they will come out
Another thing to consider is the slow death of unions as right to work continues to rise
what do you mean?
Right to work depresses Dem turnout significantly