normally you'd think they're going for different lanes but

i think the kav stuff has united the right

Definitely. Bill Nelson's No vote is going to really hurt him.

Fantastic for us

i don't get him and mccaskill coming out as NOs so early. unless their internal polling is much different than public polling, that's crazy

Net of +30% whites want Kav confirmed and a net of hispanic men want Kav confirmed as well, and hispanics in FL tend to be less liberal than nationally (they still are liberal mind you, but the cubans skew it)

donnelly too, but midwest polling is shit so we have no clue what that race looks like

So it will hurt him quite a bit to be a no vote

yea

Hopefully that depresses independent support for him and FL dems in general, including Gillum

btw

10/26, q3 gdp comes out

if that's 3.0 or higher, will be a huge boost

If you have less people voting for Nelson, you have some less people voting for Gillum, hopefully that translates

yea

Any projections on GDP yet?

http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#ind=gdp&r=20 the average projection is 3.22

I think the USMCA could help us quite a bit with that for the time remaining

Maybe bump it to like 3.5

yea

especially since the hurricane didn't fuck up shipments as much as it could

and since the european trade stuff has been over for a while

Another big problem with the NJ polls is that minority’s are horrendously underrepresented in the sample.
Menendez is probably up mid-single digits

🆙 | **Yellowhammer leveled up!**

Were they underrepresented?

Something that people frequently get wrong in regards to polling is they assume that the population = the electorate, so since the electorate is whiter than the population, they often assume that minorities are underrepresented when it often accurately reflects the electorate

I didn't see the demographic division in the poll, so I can't really be the judge, that's something to keep in mind though.

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1046788882661093379

keep in mind that's all adults, not RV, let alone LV

Wow, the last poll I checked with Trump and all adults was something like the late 30s

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1046779945391976448

https://twitter.com/1776Stonewall/status/1046795026326523905

lol

there are actually significant changes (1) point of origin requirements raised from 62.5 to 75% (2) after a phase in period 60% of components need to be in $16+/hr factories (3) US installed a quota on canadian autos (4) US has access for the first time in decades to canadian milk and dairy markets (5) steel and iron tariffs still in place (6) labor standards raised substantially across the board, preventing outsourcing to mexico

Chinese warship in 'unsafe' encounter with US destroyerhttps://www.cnn.com/2018/10/01/politics/china-us-warship-unsafe-encounter/index.html

i don't trust the chinese

No one does

i had some good chinese food last week tbh. sesame chicken

The Chinese are the scum of the earth

They will be America's major adversary in the post-Soviet era.