Message from @FLanon
Discord ID: 496344919053697024
October 27
oh ok i thought you guys were one of the super early states for some reason
which state has a month? NC?
idk
i think NV might too
Anyways, debates are important, but so are yard signs and ads
yea
are scott and desantis doing any events together?
Gillum has been virtually untouched in attack ads, there's plenty there that DeSantis can beat him down with
I think they've already done one earlier
nice
normally you'd think they're going for different lanes but
i think the kav stuff has united the right
Definitely. Bill Nelson's No vote is going to really hurt him.
Fantastic for us
i don't get him and mccaskill coming out as NOs so early. unless their internal polling is much different than public polling, that's crazy
Net of +30% whites want Kav confirmed and a net of hispanic men want Kav confirmed as well, and hispanics in FL tend to be less liberal than nationally (they still are liberal mind you, but the cubans skew it)
donnelly too, but midwest polling is shit so we have no clue what that race looks like
So it will hurt him quite a bit to be a no vote
yea
btw
10/26, q3 gdp comes out
if that's 3.0 or higher, will be a huge boost
If you have less people voting for Nelson, you have some less people voting for Gillum, hopefully that translates
yea
Any projections on GDP yet?
http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#ind=gdp&r=20 the average projection is 3.22
I think the USMCA could help us quite a bit with that for the time remaining
Maybe bump it to like 3.5
yea
especially since the hurricane didn't fuck up shipments as much as it could
and since the european trade stuff has been over for a while
Another big problem with the NJ polls is that minority’s are horrendously underrepresented in the sample.
Menendez is probably up mid-single digits
🆙 | **Yellowhammer leveled up!**
Were they underrepresented?
Something that people frequently get wrong in regards to polling is they assume that the population = the electorate, so since the electorate is whiter than the population, they often assume that minorities are underrepresented when it often accurately reflects the electorate
I didn't see the demographic division in the poll, so I can't really be the judge, that's something to keep in mind though.
keep in mind that's all adults, not RV, let alone LV
Wow, the last poll I checked with Trump and all adults was something like the late 30s