Not really, combined with the people who *didn't* vote.

That's a good sign.

2012 also conformed to the generic ballot

That means a full 1/3rd of people who voted for trump in 2016 but voted for a dem in 2018 are definitely voting against him in 2020

Not exactly

That is not a good sign for trump- it’s a sign of...

Many of those haven't made their mind up.

HIS BASE SHRINKING

No, literally that’s what that means

If his base is shrinking, party affiliations would be going the inverse way.

That’s not accurate.

His approval would be falling.

Again, no evidence to support that

A rising approval means there's something wrong with your hypothesis.

No, it really doesn’t

It just means you don’t understand what approval rating is measuring

Well it clearly does, more people approve. And damn approval ratings are good predictors of wins

Approval of Trump, simply put.

Lmao

a. Approval ratings are not indicative of wins right now

They've been for ages?

b. His approval rating is super low

Not till about March

>49%

>Super low

...yes

I'm pretty sure all he needs is 45% to win.

44% is a more accurate number

on 538 that's 46% lol

How is "44%" an accurate number?

Aaaand no president has won with under 50%

Yes, we'll see that go above soon.

It's trending upwards, I mean have you seen 538 recently?

<#542037236053442561>

538 has him at 44

46%*

You're not using registered or likely voters.

and an dis-approval of 50%

You’re mixing metrics dude

Jesus Christ

Not really, I like using this since it's closer to the true value.