going from +4 Republican to +3 Democrat is a troubling change

it looks like a turnout thing'

true

arguably there are aa loty of Trump voters who stayed home and didn't want Gillespie

again, Vogel did better as the Trump candidate

that's a problem

what did that video of the truck mowing down the kids actually scare them or something

You have to ask though, did people vote for Trump because they actually like his policies, or did people vote for Trump because they were against Clinton

it shoudn't matter who's on the ticket, staying home because you don't like the candidate undercuts Trump's ability to govern

he's still popular within his base, which should be a sign

In 2016, a crapton of Democrats didn't show up to vote for Hillary

over 10,000,000 Democratic voters, actually

our people should 100% make sure to go to the polls when they need to

Yeah, so methinks people just didn't like Hillary and didn't vote, but its different with the midterms, since there is essentially no democrat that is more loathed than Hillary

I think

IDK I'm not really looking for a red storm since i'm a lefty but its pretty interesting to see what you guys think

the thing is, you have to keep in mind that while Hillary being a particularly odious candidate was a significant issue that worked against her, she also had a lot of media shilling on her side

John Kerry didn't have it so lopsided in his favor

I'd even argue that the media was fairer to McCain and Romney

a huge factor we have to consider on a case-by-case basis is how the media treats each candidate in the hundreds of races

in primaries, recognizability is the most important factor, when it came to the dem primaries in 2016, who's more recognizable, the former 1st lady and secretary of state, or a senator from vermont

same with the Rs

I think Trump's base will be much more excited to vote this year than in the special elections last year

Oh,

that reminds me,

special elections in off-season years can be gamed

there's a special election in March,

by massive disparities in fundraising and GOTV efforts

Pennsylvania

oh yeah, that's important

Media coverage helped a lot with that though @FLanon . Media shilled for Hillary 24/7 and was biased for her.

18th district,

this is concentrated with White Working Class Voters,

(Trump's base)

this election should be an indicator of Trump's actual approval

fair enough, and I remember the wikileaks emails that showed that the media wanted trump to win to make sure that clinton would win, but the principle still stands for me

yeah, in elections that don't get much attention (primary races, off-season races), recognition is a HUGE issue

and I'd argue that fundraising is more important in primary races and off-season races than in the more publicized midterm and presidential year races

take a look at FL polls for the primaries and the MI polls before Kid Rock dropped out, they blow the competitors in their own party by miles

referring to Rick Scott in FL btw

it's very easy for people like us to assume that the general population cares as much as we do

that's why we need to mold them

sure, Alabama and Virginia got quite a bit of attention on the national level, but still not nearly as much as the 2016 Presidential election did

I bet you my balls that if I asked 50 random people here in NYC who "Ralph Northam" is, at least 45 of them would have no clue

outside of VA, sure

it'd probably be over half not knowing in VA

also, I bet if you went to some random college in Virginia in 2017, and asked 50 of them who "Ralph Northam" was, most wouldn't know

yeah

it's very easy to forget how out of touch the typical normie is

(by the way, is anyone else annoyed at how /pol/ and 4channers in general refer to SJW leftists with dyed hair as "normies" ????)

real normies are apathetic to politics

SJW leftists have more acceptance in the media and in academia, sure

but in the general population they are anything but 'normal'

there's some overlap

there are a lot of 'normies' who voted for Trump but spend the vast majority of their time not even thinking about politics

Chads and Stacies who go to college in South Carolina are pretty 'normie' but Trump supporting at the same time

but not crazy about it like people on /pol/ are

Probably "for the lols" since its Trump

likewise, I know a lot of 'normies' here in NYC who voted Hillary but aren't sperging out about Trump

I suppose, yeah, the typical normie who gets bombarded by media and entertainment 24 hours a day probably wouldn't be right wing though

In general, people don't care about Trump as much as you think

back in 2016, I asked my mom if she knew who Bernie Sanders was, and she said "oh...he's a businessman, right???"

kek

I wish twitter would shut the fuck about him for a second though

Twitter leftists are the fucking worst

Twitter overrepresents the American liberal/democrat population

there definitely has been a real paradigm shift in the fact that there's more people involved in politics nowadays

at least Tumblr leftists are so obviously odious, whereas Twitter leftists have an air of legitimacy

here's the thing,

the twitter system itself is so manipulative and scummy

most actions by the federal government don't affect everyday Americans

man I wish Nehlen's bill was in effect

yeah, Twitter is supposed to be an apolitical site (so was Tumblr, but Tumblr is supposed to be niche while Twitter is for everyone)

the only real change under Trump that people will notice is the tax cuts,
people might not realize why they have more money left to spend tho

lmao just wondering do you guys think Nehlen is going to beat Ryan during the primaries

no way

he'll lose by 70 point margin

so the fact that Twitter is so stacked in favor of leftists by giving all blue checkmarks to all these Literally Who's and shadowbanning wrongthink ....is worse than some obviously weird otherkin posting on Tumblr

Didn't he lose quite a lot to Ryan last midterm?

ye, he has nothing to really lose at this point

someone who wants to LARP like Nehlen should wait until AFTER they're in office, not before the primary

Stormfagging would carry much more impact from someone who actually can vote for legislation

now, it would massively threaten their reelection chances, but if your objective is to bring a lot of attention to radical ideas, you're better off waiting until you're actually in office

the shallnotcensor bill he put up looks perfect

lmao I was thinking that as well. Nehlen doesn't talk like a radical right-winger or seems like one

Looking at some of the interviews

it'd really even the playing field

he definitely went all out

one idea that popped into my head after thinking about what Macron is doing in France, is this

not sure if that tactic is good enough, I don't think he has a great chance, but watching him speak live he seems amicable to the average person I think

a future radical right winger is better off pretending to be a cuck for years to win office as a leftist, then show his true colors

Oh yeah. Macron is nowhere near left wing. He's more neoliberal, sort of like the Clintons

a shift in the overton window is much more effective when a person in elected office does it rather than a candidate

I mean, take a look at the shithole situation, you have people on Fox and average Trump supporters dissing Haiti, when they'd never dare to before he said it

imagine if someone runs as a generic liberal and wins the Presidency as a Democrat, then turns out to be even more of a radical right winger than Trump...they'd probably lose reelection but it wouldn't matter much

however it's an unrealistic strategy

lol imagine if bernie did that

that kind of stuff is good for fanfiction, but I wouldn't count on it realistically

the kind of person crazy enough to pretend to be the opposite of what they stand for, for so many years in order to avoid suspicion, would be too crazy to actually win

it's like those 4d chess guys who talk about mueller being a Trump agent, you have to take some things the way they are