Message from @system11
Discord ID: 631478800965959690
They need to gain MPs they first lost
Since the rebels will be replaced for one
It's not as if that 44 all belong to other parties
So yeah I see it
If you think those indies will be voted back in you might be mistaken
Some of those indies are going to split the vote
But that's only 21 anyway
You are also putting all your eggs on the two parties that seem to hate each others guts and not agree on anything suddenly going kumbaya
The likely hood is they will just split each other's vote
They will to an extent
Just as Lib Dems will split the Tory vote
As BP will split both the Tory and Labour vote
Essentially going maximum pessimism
Mapping out the possible and probable outcomes isn't "maximum pessism"
I think he's right and they'll form a coalition
Any more than assuming everything will go fine and as you would want is "maximum optomism"
They are that hungry to rule
Yup
Tories fail to get an overall majority means the end of brexit, you should at least agree with that
Well yes
Well no
They still have DUP
in the back pocket
DUP are going to lose seats at the next election
Which is an easy 9 more seats
This was a high watermark for them
They are predicted to lose 1
There are talks of election pacts in NI which would see them lose 5 assuming no other movement
Plus a TPB pact if required
Best case is tbp & tory coalition, that might be enough to keep the fascists out
Tories have already ruled out a BP pact
Brexit Party will be unlikely to win any seats
If there is an extention you'd see that revised, plus you're the one predicting pacts with no backing up of that prediction
Yeah it's power is in swinging seats
I'm allowed to aswell
I'm making predictions based on what is likely, not what is possible
Tbp can't win seats but absolutely can prop up Tories
Fine, LDM has also ruled out supporting labour
Especially if JC is there
You arnt applying these rules equally