Message from @system11

Discord ID: 631478800965959690


2019-10-09 13:03:39 UTC  

They need to gain MPs they first lost

2019-10-09 13:03:47 UTC  

Since the rebels will be replaced for one

2019-10-09 13:04:05 UTC  

It's not as if that 44 all belong to other parties

2019-10-09 13:04:13 UTC  

So yeah I see it

2019-10-09 13:04:44 UTC  

If you think those indies will be voted back in you might be mistaken

2019-10-09 13:06:04 UTC  

Some of those indies are going to split the vote

2019-10-09 13:06:13 UTC  

But that's only 21 anyway

2019-10-09 13:07:12 UTC  

You are also putting all your eggs on the two parties that seem to hate each others guts and not agree on anything suddenly going kumbaya

2019-10-09 13:07:26 UTC  

The likely hood is they will just split each other's vote

2019-10-09 13:07:42 UTC  

They will to an extent

2019-10-09 13:07:50 UTC  

Just as Lib Dems will split the Tory vote

2019-10-09 13:08:01 UTC  

As BP will split both the Tory and Labour vote

2019-10-09 13:08:11 UTC  

Essentially going maximum pessimism

2019-10-09 13:10:20 UTC  

Mapping out the possible and probable outcomes isn't "maximum pessism"

2019-10-09 13:10:25 UTC  

I think he's right and they'll form a coalition

2019-10-09 13:10:37 UTC  

Any more than assuming everything will go fine and as you would want is "maximum optomism"

2019-10-09 13:10:41 UTC  

They are that hungry to rule

2019-10-09 13:10:44 UTC  

Yup

2019-10-09 13:11:08 UTC  

Tories fail to get an overall majority means the end of brexit, you should at least agree with that

2019-10-09 13:11:16 UTC  

Well yes

2019-10-09 13:11:18 UTC  

You could very well see it turn into coalition vs coalition

2019-10-09 13:11:22 UTC  

Well no

2019-10-09 13:11:27 UTC  

They still have DUP

2019-10-09 13:11:31 UTC  

in the back pocket

2019-10-09 13:11:35 UTC  

DUP are going to lose seats at the next election

2019-10-09 13:11:39 UTC  

Which is an easy 9 more seats

2019-10-09 13:11:41 UTC  

This was a high watermark for them

2019-10-09 13:11:45 UTC  

They are predicted to lose 1

2019-10-09 13:12:10 UTC  

There are talks of election pacts in NI which would see them lose 5 assuming no other movement

2019-10-09 13:12:16 UTC  

Plus a TPB pact if required

2019-10-09 13:12:27 UTC  

Best case is tbp & tory coalition, that might be enough to keep the fascists out

2019-10-09 13:12:31 UTC  

Tories have already ruled out a BP pact

2019-10-09 13:12:40 UTC  

Brexit Party will be unlikely to win any seats

2019-10-09 13:12:59 UTC  

If there is an extention you'd see that revised, plus you're the one predicting pacts with no backing up of that prediction

2019-10-09 13:12:59 UTC  

Yeah it's power is in swinging seats

2019-10-09 13:13:02 UTC  

I'm allowed to aswell

2019-10-09 13:13:18 UTC  

I'm making predictions based on what is likely, not what is possible

2019-10-09 13:13:32 UTC  

Tbp can't win seats but absolutely can prop up Tories

2019-10-09 13:13:33 UTC  

Fine, LDM has also ruled out supporting labour

2019-10-09 13:13:42 UTC  

Especially if JC is there

2019-10-09 13:13:52 UTC  

You arnt applying these rules equally