Message from @Eccles
Discord ID: 632268548752015361
Absurdly high stakes gamble
How?
The Conservatives would win any election
Post second referendum that is not a guarantee
And their members are strongly pro-Brexit so there is no chance of a U-turn in policy
Members yes, voters no
Most of their voters are
Something like 60%
Fundamentally the Conservatives would not support Remain because there members would rebel and a significant amount of their voters would too and almost every poll has predicated a Conservative Victory in any election
Basically, Brexit is coming
Eventually
I think a second referendum will change the GE table a fair chunk, and not in their favour
How would it?
No Brexiteers would vote for a Remain party
Resurgent Brexit Party and a loss of Tory moderates
I don't think the Tory Moderates would leave
I do, if a second referendum came up remain
It would be clear to everyone that the referendum would be boycotted by Brexiteers
When turnout is low by a few million it will confirm it
But all of this relies on Labour actually being able to take over which is seeming unlikely
Reminder lads
America aint our allies
They should be
The US is the best
Come on, man. Are you going to let a few deaths get in the way of a good trade deal?
https://i.imgur.com/GXjJ2hA.png Graph to 28 day average (Each point for a party is the average of all of the polls produced in the last 28 days).
https://i.imgur.com/r9jTg7x.png Here is the scatterplot, each coloured dot represents a party in a single poll result.
The 28-day polling averages for today (11 Oct 2019) are: CON: 33%, LAB: 23%, LIB: 20%, BXP: 12%, GRN: 5%, NAT: 5%, UKI: 0%, TIG: 0%
The graph on Wikipedia is a few weeks old and has both on a single graph, but I CBA figuring out how to do that.
28 day averages aren't much help at this point - situation is too volatile
in the scrollback - yes to abbot as leader, even more unelectable
Do the quiz lads
>Corbyn will go if he loses election
>The only problem is his replacement will probably be even worse
One nightmare scenario for me is ||Tony B.liar comes back!||
nah I don't think he'd dare
and Blair would never get past the momentum crew anyway
@Nathan James 123 I got Conservative
I got UKIP
I also got tory, I however did love the typical guardian framing
More agreeable language used for the extreme remain options
than flat leave options