Message from @Eccles

Discord ID: 632267470799110174


2019-10-11 17:20:59 UTC  

That's how the UK political system works

2019-10-11 17:21:05 UTC  

Then they'll action it themselves

2019-10-11 17:21:11 UTC  

And?

2019-10-11 17:21:14 UTC  

GE next

2019-10-11 17:21:20 UTC  

Which the Conservatives would win

2019-10-11 17:21:29 UTC  

They would just revoke it

2019-10-11 17:21:38 UTC  

for it to be Invoked again after the GE

2019-10-11 17:22:11 UTC  

Remain would win the referendum but then it would be followed up by a Conservatives victory in the Election

2019-10-11 17:22:16 UTC  

You'd be in dicey territory at that point because you'd then have Tories doing then what Labour are doing now - flying in the face of the public

2019-10-11 17:22:23 UTC  

They won't

2019-10-11 17:22:31 UTC  

Boris is leading them

2019-10-11 17:22:53 UTC  

That Labour tactic will just extend the process by a month or so

2019-10-11 17:23:05 UTC  

Past that it won't actually achieve anything

2019-10-11 17:23:41 UTC  

He needs to go nuclear if they start making a referendum a pre-requisite

2019-10-11 17:24:03 UTC  

The referendum will be boycotted by Brexiteers which will lead to a Remain victory which won't actually matter though because in the following GE the Brexiteers would vote and the Conservatives would win and would just invoke Article 50 again if needed

2019-10-11 17:24:22 UTC  

Absurdly high stakes gamble

2019-10-11 17:24:30 UTC  

How?

2019-10-11 17:24:40 UTC  

The Conservatives would win any election

2019-10-11 17:24:52 UTC  

Post second referendum that is not a guarantee

2019-10-11 17:24:59 UTC  

And their members are strongly pro-Brexit so there is no chance of a U-turn in policy

2019-10-11 17:25:12 UTC  

Members yes, voters no

2019-10-11 17:25:22 UTC  

Most of their voters are

2019-10-11 17:25:34 UTC  

Something like 60%

2019-10-11 17:26:24 UTC  

Fundamentally the Conservatives would not support Remain because there members would rebel and a significant amount of their voters would too and almost every poll has predicated a Conservative Victory in any election

2019-10-11 17:26:31 UTC  

Basically, Brexit is coming

2019-10-11 17:26:34 UTC  

Eventually

2019-10-11 17:27:08 UTC  

I think a second referendum will change the GE table a fair chunk, and not in their favour

2019-10-11 17:27:28 UTC  

How would it?

2019-10-11 17:27:42 UTC  

No Brexiteers would vote for a Remain party

2019-10-11 17:27:47 UTC  

Resurgent Brexit Party and a loss of Tory moderates

2019-10-11 17:28:03 UTC  

I don't think the Tory Moderates would leave

2019-10-11 17:28:12 UTC  

I do, if a second referendum came up remain

2019-10-11 17:28:21 UTC  

It would be clear to everyone that the referendum would be boycotted by Brexiteers

2019-10-11 17:28:31 UTC  

When turnout is low by a few million it will confirm it

2019-10-11 17:29:12 UTC  

But all of this relies on Labour actually being able to take over which is seeming unlikely

2019-10-11 17:29:29 UTC  

Doesn't really matter who the opposition are

2019-10-11 17:30:11 UTC  

Reminder lads

2019-10-11 17:30:16 UTC  

America aint our allies

2019-10-11 17:30:40 UTC  

They should be

2019-10-11 17:30:47 UTC  

The US is the best