Message from Why Tea in MacGuyver - Skills & Academics #noncrypto-investing


2017-12-21 18:44:01 UTC  

Lol when the cryptos correct

2017-12-21 20:00:19 UTC  

I made a new server, guys
https://discord.gg/yescoinerspleasestfu

2017-12-21 20:29:19 UTC  

COINERS GET OUT

2017-12-21 20:29:41 UTC  

coiners pls leave

2017-12-21 20:31:11 UTC  

Mfw this channel still ends up being about crypto

2017-12-21 20:31:32 UTC  

No more crypto conversation in here

2017-12-21 20:32:52 UTC  

There's so many other finance topics to discuss that need a space: stocks, bonds, options, houses, business, tax-advantaged accounts, etc

2017-12-21 20:36:46 UTC  

@Guillaume did you say crypto?

2017-12-21 20:36:59 UTC  

For future people: this channel has a good history of noncrypto financial advice, you just have to search or scroll past the crypto stuff

2017-12-21 20:37:04 UTC  

2017-12-22 21:41:05 UTC  

Nocoiners unite!

2017-12-22 22:55:13 UTC  

Aka no bubble chasers

2017-12-22 22:56:33 UTC  

Muh scarcity != value

2017-12-23 09:01:27 UTC  

Financial experts: (including @Tycho Brahe and @Zyzz and any other Financial experts I might have forgotton) I'm been learning about researching stocks, and while I've seen a lot of explanations and theoretical models, I've never seen an example of a fully written out report that an analyst might write about a stock. Does anyone know where I could see some? I don't care if they're outdated or w/e I just want to see what an end result would look like. More examples the better.

2017-12-23 11:58:04 UTC  

@ThisIsChris I think I can help you with that

2017-12-23 12:00:43 UTC  

@Zyzz Great, I would appreciate it

2017-12-23 14:50:17 UTC  

MorningStar used to have some reports for free, I haven’t checked lately to see if they still do.

2017-12-23 14:52:34 UTC  

I still check stock valuations on Morningstar for free.

2017-12-24 12:59:09 UTC  

Your online broker may (usually does?) have access to reports from Morningstar, etc. Mine does.

2017-12-24 12:59:16 UTC  

Also:

2017-12-24 12:59:20 UTC  

`“You know you are in a bubble when the shoeshine boy starts giving financial advice and people take it seriously.”`

2017-12-24 13:00:40 UTC  

we are absolutely in a bubble. Its being driven by low interest rates (cheap money) that are driving up asset prices well above the rate of wage growth

2017-12-24 13:01:47 UTC  

"Delinquencies on subprime auto loans made by non-bank lenders have been soaring for years, with the rate now approaching 10%."

2017-12-24 13:46:51 UTC  

@Zyzz How do I protect my savings for when the bubble pops? What's the likelihood of my investments taking a huge hit when the bubble pops?

2017-12-24 13:47:42 UTC  

That's what I'm worried about, but I'm not even educated enough to properly express my concern

2017-12-24 13:50:41 UTC  

@John O - thats the million dollar question that we all wish we knew. there is no sure fire way other than holding 100% cash. Other than that, pick a selection of broad based and diversified ETFs/mutual funds while keeping a portion of your savings in cash. Manage the % cash in your portfolio based on how optimistic you are about the stock market. it is very tough to call the top in the market

2017-12-24 18:12:48 UTC  

@Zyzz my biggest Q about a likely bubble is: is it going to cause a 2001 style 3 month recession, or a 2008 utter nightmare?

2017-12-25 01:14:22 UTC  

Also, 2008 is not as bad as it could get. It could get much worse.

2017-12-25 01:18:37 UTC  

True but hard to grapple with mentally, wasn't 2008 the biggest recession since the Great Depression?

2017-12-25 02:17:54 UTC  

@ThisIsChris thats a good question as well. To determine what the next situation may be like I think we need to examine what caused the last two. From my limited understanding of the 2001 recession, it was in manufacturing and largely unfelt by most of the country. The 2008 recession was obv felt by everyone. imo, the #1 factor that caused the recession was people getting loans they shouldn't have gotten (subprime - who are mostly minorities). this caused asset price inflation in housing (values far exceeded intrinsic value). money was somewhat cheap and was most certainly easy to attain. all of the fall out that came through defaulting derivatives and lehman going under was due to the pop in the housing market bubble, making it the origin of the crisis, imo. The housing market is a VERY large asset class. If we were going to go through a similarly painful recession, I'd venture to say we will have to have a similarly sized asset class burst. let's talk about different asset classes, their size, and propensity to burst.

2017-12-25 02:19:22 UTC  

Does anyone know why I cant C+P from word?

2017-12-25 02:19:39 UTC  

not trying to retype all of that

2017-12-25 02:23:31 UTC  

@Zyzz you're on your computer, right? From Word on your computer to Discord?

2017-12-25 02:24:54 UTC  

yes

2017-12-25 02:28:28 UTC  

The subprime auto loan market is doing poorly (10% default currently). While I think even a slight 2001 style recession would send the default rate up dramatically, this market is not large enough to cause serious systemic damage. The next asset class that is pretty large (over $1 trillion i believe) is the student loan market. From what I understand, you cannot discharge student loans in bankruptcy (both public and private loans). I am not exactly sure how the accounting would work for a financial institution who has made loans to students who have fallen behind on payment but if you have massive non payments by borrowers this could dramatically impact a firm's business operations which could result in 1) lower earning/decreased profitability, 2) pullback on lending, 3) something else I am unaware of. I do think the student loan market is resilience because 1) inability to default on payments, 2) parent cosigners. students are absolutely debt slaves but being a debt slave does not cause a massive recession. large numbers of people defaulting on payments at the same time does.

2017-12-25 02:28:41 UTC  

I was able to do it on my phone

2017-12-27 23:12:40 UTC  

@everyone if you have any interest in investing in 2018 read the below:

2017-12-27 23:12:52 UTC  

I have been thinking about 2018 as an investment year. I have come to the conclusion I think there is a strong possibility the S&P 500 will go up rather than down in 2018. As such I will be establishing a rather large position in the S&P 500 2x leveraged ETF ticker symbol: SSO. My thoughts are as follows: 1) I think the tax bill will provide substantial tailwinds for the economy. businesses are optimistic and will be more likely to provide employees with bonuses, higher wages, and increased hiring/more job security. consumer confidence has risen precipitously since trumps election and I believe it will continue to rise and stay high due to 1) more money in their paychecks, 2) better prospects for raises/promotions, 3) job security (due to companies hiring). The economy is ~70% consumption driven so it is always a good thing for the economy when consumers feel good about their economic prospects. the proverbial animal spirits are most certainly at play here.
How does this investment work? It’s a directional bet on the S&P 500 with 2x leverage. I think the S&P will go up rather than down in 2018 and I am buying this ETF to magnify my returns. Ex: lets say the S&P goes up 10% in 2018. This ETF will return 20% over the year. If I am wrong and the S&P goes down rather than up, remember, you’ll lose twice as much.
Who this investment is good for? 1) someone with an IRA who does not care about cash flow and will not be able to touch the money in 30+yrs, 2) someone with substantial resources who can afford to take risks. 3) someone willing to take on risk in general. Understand, if I am wrong, and the S&P decreases over 2018, you’ll lose twice as much as you would otherwise.

2017-12-27 23:15:53 UTC  

Something to watch also, Dominion energy as a long play

2017-12-27 23:16:02 UTC  

whats your thesis?