Message from @DCViking
Discord ID: 394140232813117450
get out
@ThisIsChris yes split out crypto currency related conversation from all other finance
Yes we should split them
Lol when the cryptos correct
I made a new server, guys
https://discord.gg/yescoinerspleasestfu
COINERS GET OUT
coiners pls leave
Mfw this channel still ends up being about crypto
No more crypto conversation in here
There's so many other finance topics to discuss that need a space: stocks, bonds, options, houses, business, tax-advantaged accounts, etc
@Guillaume did you say crypto?
For future people: this channel has a good history of noncrypto financial advice, you just have to search or scroll past the crypto stuff
Nocoiners unite!
Aka no bubble chasers
Muh scarcity != value
Financial experts: (including @Tycho Brahe and @Zyzz and any other Financial experts I might have forgotton) I'm been learning about researching stocks, and while I've seen a lot of explanations and theoretical models, I've never seen an example of a fully written out report that an analyst might write about a stock. Does anyone know where I could see some? I don't care if they're outdated or w/e I just want to see what an end result would look like. More examples the better.
@ThisIsChris I think I can help you with that
@Zyzz Great, I would appreciate it
MorningStar used to have some reports for free, I haven’t checked lately to see if they still do.
Your online broker may (usually does?) have access to reports from Morningstar, etc. Mine does.
Also:
`“You know you are in a bubble when the shoeshine boy starts giving financial advice and people take it seriously.”`
we are absolutely in a bubble. Its being driven by low interest rates (cheap money) that are driving up asset prices well above the rate of wage growth
"Delinquencies on subprime auto loans made by non-bank lenders have been soaring for years, with the rate now approaching 10%."
@Zyzz How do I protect my savings for when the bubble pops? What's the likelihood of my investments taking a huge hit when the bubble pops?
That's what I'm worried about, but I'm not even educated enough to properly express my concern
@John O - thats the million dollar question that we all wish we knew. there is no sure fire way other than holding 100% cash. Other than that, pick a selection of broad based and diversified ETFs/mutual funds while keeping a portion of your savings in cash. Manage the % cash in your portfolio based on how optimistic you are about the stock market. it is very tough to call the top in the market
@Zyzz my biggest Q about a likely bubble is: is it going to cause a 2001 style 3 month recession, or a 2008 utter nightmare?
Also, 2008 is not as bad as it could get. It could get much worse.
True but hard to grapple with mentally, wasn't 2008 the biggest recession since the Great Depression?
@ThisIsChris thats a good question as well. To determine what the next situation may be like I think we need to examine what caused the last two. From my limited understanding of the 2001 recession, it was in manufacturing and largely unfelt by most of the country. The 2008 recession was obv felt by everyone. imo, the #1 factor that caused the recession was people getting loans they shouldn't have gotten (subprime - who are mostly minorities). this caused asset price inflation in housing (values far exceeded intrinsic value). money was somewhat cheap and was most certainly easy to attain. all of the fall out that came through defaulting derivatives and lehman going under was due to the pop in the housing market bubble, making it the origin of the crisis, imo. The housing market is a VERY large asset class. If we were going to go through a similarly painful recession, I'd venture to say we will have to have a similarly sized asset class burst. let's talk about different asset classes, their size, and propensity to burst.
Does anyone know why I cant C+P from word?
not trying to retype all of that
@Zyzz you're on your computer, right? From Word on your computer to Discord?
yes
The subprime auto loan market is doing poorly (10% default currently). While I think even a slight 2001 style recession would send the default rate up dramatically, this market is not large enough to cause serious systemic damage. The next asset class that is pretty large (over $1 trillion i believe) is the student loan market. From what I understand, you cannot discharge student loans in bankruptcy (both public and private loans). I am not exactly sure how the accounting would work for a financial institution who has made loans to students who have fallen behind on payment but if you have massive non payments by borrowers this could dramatically impact a firm's business operations which could result in 1) lower earning/decreased profitability, 2) pullback on lending, 3) something else I am unaware of. I do think the student loan market is resilience because 1) inability to default on payments, 2) parent cosigners. students are absolutely debt slaves but being a debt slave does not cause a massive recession. large numbers of people defaulting on payments at the same time does.
I was able to do it on my phone
@everyone if you have any interest in investing in 2018 read the below: