Message from Why Tea in MacGuyver - Skills & Academics #noncrypto-investing


2018-01-03 18:41:00 UTC  

Hmm not sure if that's it, but could be. Their main competition, AMD, is also up today.

2018-01-03 18:41:03 UTC  

Looks like their consumer level products have lower margins than their commerical level and they're forcing commercial customers to use the commercial level and the customers just shut up and take it because Nvidia is so far ahead of the competition.

2018-01-03 18:41:37 UTC  

Oh that explains a lot @Tanner - SC

2018-01-03 18:42:56 UTC  

>Strong November chip sales figures from the Semiconductor Industry Association were a catalyst for Tuesday's gains.

2018-01-03 18:44:19 UTC  

>Nvidia, which has boomed as its chips have expanded from PC gaming to autonomous driving and artificial intelligence

2018-01-03 18:45:05 UTC  

do you think GPUs being used for mining crypto is still giving them a boost?

2018-01-03 18:45:51 UTC  

I've seen some emerging coins that use non-GPU mining systems but nothing that would affect current application too dramatically, if it's impact on sales isn't negligable

2018-01-03 18:46:20 UTC  

but I do recall a pretty big spike in demand and price not too far back

2018-01-03 18:46:41 UTC  

Yes. AMD getting more of a boost from crypto mining than Nvidia due to their hardware architecture being better suited for it, but Nvidia getting a boost too

2018-01-03 18:46:54 UTC  

I see

2018-01-03 19:28:54 UTC  

@ThisIsChris nice call on NVDA. Are you selling or holding the options you currently own?

2018-01-03 19:42:28 UTC  

@Zyzz good question! Now I'm not sure since this is a lot more movement faster than I was expecting, but I will probably sell, maybe roll out or buy back in closer to earnings, not sure yet

2018-01-03 19:45:01 UTC  

@Zyzz I just rolled them out to 220 strike for a credit

2018-01-03 19:45:59 UTC  

Whenever my limit order goes through immediately I wonder if I should have asked more lol

2018-01-04 13:55:39 UTC  

@here just a generic and friendly reminder to not risk money you can't lose. Also that no one here has a crystal ball and unforseen risks can arise.

2018-01-04 13:56:04 UTC  

2018-01-04 18:03:04 UTC  

@Why Tea How do you insulate your investments from crashes?

2018-01-04 18:06:24 UTC  

Well you can't entirely insulate, but you can reduce the risk by diversifying across asset classes that are loosely coupled / correlated with each other.

2018-01-04 18:07:48 UTC  

A bad year in the housing market or for commercial rents isn't tied to a bad year for long term bonds, and isn't connected directly with returns on non-cyclical industries, etc.

2018-01-04 18:08:11 UTC  

"Own lots of different stuff."

2018-01-04 18:08:49 UTC  

I can write/copypasta more about it later and I'm sure our professionals have excellent input to provide.

2018-01-04 18:11:08 UTC  

I'm not a pro just an amateur byt one thing comes to mind about one particular sector: you can protect stock investments with "protective puts" which are just puts on stock you currently own.

2018-01-04 18:11:48 UTC  

We could definitely benefit from someone giving an overview on options and strategies like covered calls and protective puts.

2018-01-04 18:13:27 UTC  

I saw that in here earlier. I've used covered calls with success on some big, slow moving, high-dividend blue chips, etc.

2018-01-04 18:15:17 UTC  

Oh yeah I like covered calls, for that

2018-01-05 01:31:00 UTC  

Here's a nice slideshow from investopedia with 10 common option strategies, I think it's good and concise if you already know what an option is. https://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/options-strategies/

2018-01-07 01:58:13 UTC  

@ThisIsChris Congrats on the awesome NVDA play and thanks for sharing! I've been busy with the kids, but I would have totally jumped on that too.

2018-01-07 01:58:55 UTC  

@Belzec if you still want a rundown on covered calls LMK.

2018-01-10 04:03:40 UTC  

Oh yeah, the recession is coming. We are nearing peak euphoria.

2018-01-10 04:06:47 UTC  

It may be, but ZH is a pretty doomsayer-y site.

2018-01-10 04:16:26 UTC  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY This shows some striking examples of how bubbles can be artificially created and deliberately popped, while also alluding to benefits of economic fascism or at least "productive lending."

2018-01-11 14:45:49 UTC  

@Deleted User @Zyzz I sold my NVDA calls yesterday because NVDA covered all the gap I felt I could reasonably expect in the time window I was looking at and I was losing time value. Now I'm thinking of repositioning myself, NVDA has had nothing but good news lately and its competitors are falling behind, yet I don't think some recent news will be reflected in the next earnings report so I'm looking for a new position. I'm expecting trickling upward movements the rest of the month, which are making me think of buying some vertical spreads, but I'm not sure which ones yet. I'm thinking really near term, like this week or next week expiry, though I'm not sure if I want ATM, OTM, or ITM, that would probably depend on expiry date. Nearer term would make me lean towards ITM vertical call spread, longer term makes me think more OTM vertical call spread. Thoughts and opinions?

2018-01-11 15:44:09 UTC  

Hmm, I'm still looking at different expiries. The gorilla in the room is that earnings report is coming out 2/8. One thing I've noticed is that just before earnings the near-expiry spreads tend to approach 50% of their max possible payouts, which theoretically makes sense, and deviations from that reflect market expectations of going up or down. That makes me think the right move may be to look at the 2/9 spreads that are trading < 50% their max payouts, such as the 225/227.5 vertical call spread, which is currently trading around 1.10 and by this theory would approach 1.25 by 2/8.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/401038583831724042/Screenshot_20180111-103905.png

2018-01-11 17:04:00 UTC  

Let me know if you guys have thoughts. I'm starting to realize I have no theses I feel strongly about on NVDA anymore, so I will probably idle a while until something catches my eye again

2018-01-11 20:46:53 UTC  

@ThisIsChris I’ll get back to you later today

2018-01-11 20:57:05 UTC  

@Zyzz thanks. I keep checking the options chains. Sometimes things look like good opportunities, but then I start overthinking them and step back

2018-01-11 22:21:24 UTC  

@ThisIsChris the only time I play options is when I have high conviction. Otherwise I don’t. I think you may have answered your own question in the last message. Also, I am unfamiliar with the spread strategy so I’m not too qualified to comment.

2018-01-11 22:22:57 UTC  

Also what do you think would cause the stock to go up from where it’s at currently? It seems like the market has made a big move and you have made money. Why not take your profit and move on?