Message from @Alexander Pechorin
Discord ID: 512673299180945408
From reddit <https://reddit.com/r/btc/comments/9uo4ti/above_600_now/>:
> I'm afraid it's a pump and dump spike based on the fact that there may be a hard fork. The BTC/BCH fork in August 2017 has given a lot of investors the hope that that may happen again.
During the BTC/BCH fork, users who held BTC received essentially “free” BCH that they could sell and therefore end up with *more* BTC.
Just got caught up on some of the discussions here. Nice to see some fellow BCH people @Tanner - SC
oof
@Tanner - SC any idea why? people finally realizing BCH is the superior blockchain?
BCH hard forks tomorrow morning. Everyone is going nuts because of the uncertainty.
@Tanner - SC right I meant BCH sorry sorry, but that's good to know thanks for the info! Anything interesting about the hard fork?
Most interesting thing IMO is the buy opportunity. I love dramatic events like this.
It’s the most exciting, wacky, wild-west time in Bitcoin’s history tomorrow
It might very well be the best purchasing opportunity ever for BCH. However I expect the uncertainty will last days, if not months @Tanner - SC, unless Craig and Calvin are bluffing
@Alexander Pechorin good, I prefer buying windows of months rather than days. This reminds me of when Silk Road got shut down. The price tanked hard, but only for a few hours. I bought heavy in that window.
I don’t have enough money to buy all the BCH I want to buy!
Idk I’ve not been in crypto a while
I’ve lost money so I don’t want to lose more
https://cash.coin.dance/
Economically when a hard fork happens, the USD price on the original blockchain gets split between the two forks (so long as the market demand stays the same) plus there is an implied volatility premium for the cost of speculators looking to make money on fast movements after the fork. The two forks "fight it out" for who gets most of the business from the old blockchain. As this fight settles and "the winner" becomes more clear, the implied volatility premium decreases, so if market demand stays constant over all this time then the sum of the prices of the two crytocurrencies steadily decreases over time.
So if crypto XYZ is worth 100 dollars when a hard fork called XYZ2 happens, then so long as market demand stays the same then the USD price of XYZ plus USD price of XYZ2 should equal 100 dollars plus the premium of the implied volatility as the two block chains compete to win. This implied volatility premium will diminish over time as "the winner" becomes more clear so that in the long run, assuming market demand stays constant, the sum of the prices will go back down to 100 over time.
It will be curious to see whether the market will trust bch/bchsv again now. Volume appears obscenely low on both chains, though that’s not exactly surprising given the remaining uncertainty
I’ll hold onto my SV all the same. I prefer Daniel Krawisz’s approach to forks.
@Alexander Pechorin if you had bch, then don't you have both bchabc and bchsv?
Because they forked from the same blockchain?
Yes!
It looks like it’s just BCH and BCHSV. I doubt BCHABC will stick on any exchanges
@Alexander Pechorin nice!
@Tanner - SC That's awesome!
That’s actually huge.....
Oosh
96% drop from the peak on December 20, 2017
@Tanner - SC BCH had some forks recently, right? If you had 1 BCH a month ago then now you have 1 BCH + 1 BCHABC + 1 BCHSV, right? What's the value of your coin if you add up all three?