Message from @leftingfighter33
Discord ID: 775957953558872095
Ok
Btw Robert mentioned a letter by an election commissioner about them investigating everything for the sake of trust
Anyone have a link to that?
regarding the Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai video, I'm not so sure of his analysis: 1) I don't necessarily believe the curve isn't linear through out, he says it's flat then slopes down after the 20 percent mark but I think it could just as easily be linearly sloping down through out 2) I think there is way that seems reasonable the line slopes down linearly, mainly that there are some percentage of Democrats that want to vote for
Trump and some percentage of Republicans that do NOT want to vote for Trump and as the precinct leans more Republican then the vote from straight line Republican skews more downward
3) when it compares to a mostly Democratic county the high end on the horizontal axis is 20 percent and to properly compare them you need to put them on the same scale as the Republican counties and when you do I don't think you'll see any difference
I do think all states should get rid of straight line party voting option. If for no other reason than folks can't do this analysis.
Also I think his recommendations about more transparency and greater access to data and the ability to audit are all good things
update on the Benford's Law thing explained for the city of Chicago
essentially because the numbers don't span a large amount of orders of magnitude (# of digits), in particular I think 98% of the precincts had 3 digit votes numbers, the distribution of first digits ends up being a normal distribution
and Trump's data seemingly fits Benford's Law because he averaged around 100 votes in each precinct
@daddy Kevin yeah precisely why I wouldn't pay much attention to the Benford's law thing in regards this subject
Dr shiva got cheated on the primaries by RHinos
Fuck these people.
(I'd wait for a statistician of the forensic kind to verify things before jumping to conclusions)
Why a forensic statistician?
whatever I don't know the exact titles
maybe a good data scientist is something too
but there is a difference between someone that can find a pattern and someone that can verify that it means something
a forensic something-or-other will be someone who is used in court as an expert witness, or works for a firm that does that sort of thing
> 3) when it compares to a mostly Democratic county the high end on the horizontal axis is 20 percent and to properly compare them you need to put them on the same scale as the Republican counties and when you do I don't think you'll see any difference
@meglide
I did this comparison for all counties across all states (but not at the presinct level) and It matches what Shiva says it should. https://github.com/Bitcadia/DownBallot/blob/master/Outputs/CountyDownBallotDiffsByStraight.pdf
@DrSammyD huh? I just looked at your data and it doesn't look Shiva's data
exactly, bunched and random but with straight lines, no inflection
That's what the MI precinct data should look like.
yeah but you did it for MI as a whole and it looks okay
In other words, Romney's suggestion that "Real" republicans would not vote for Trump is nonsense
Yes, MI looks ok but not at the precinct level
I don't have the precinct level data.
So it all gets hidden inside the county
actually I think what Romney said has some truth to it ... I know of several folks that voted the way Romney describes
Not according to the evidence I just posted. The vast majority of individual Highly republican areas for both Wisconsin and Minnesota voted for trump at a higher rate if they didn't vote party line.
Why not MI? They're basically the same states culturally and demographically
I'm not sure on that one ... never lived in any of those states, but I get the impression that MI is different because of Detroit
That's only one county. It's one dot in all of those on the plots