DrSammyD
Discord ID: 335535722096230401
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If anybody's interested in playing with the data, I have a script which shows the discrepancy between pres and down ballot voting.
https://runkit.com/embed/j48gd6o1p9ze
Anybody know where I can find House results by county?
Yeah, those are by district
> Red Illinois. Surreal.
@Zuluzeit
I know right, I saw that in the data and surprised the heck out of me. I knew California was on the line though.
The census goes towards house rep, so how ever the census counts people
forreal?
who's reporting it?
ABC has him down 15K
But they're still at 98%
They last updated at 9pm et
yeah, he's down 15K but nothings changed since 2 days ago
They changed it back to tossup
RCP too
14746 diff
with 2% left counting and a difference of 0.5%, yeah, it's too early
lol, Jo Jorgensen is a regular Ross Perot
Honestly, I couldn't have hoped for a better outcome. Somebody's going to secede regardless of the outcome now ๐
My guess, California or Texas. And I'm moving there to no longer have 60% of my paycheck removed.
Yeah, but they'll have a lower tax rate purely due to not having to support the largest military industrial complex in the world
If I was in AZ, I wouldn't count another vote until Maricopa was done.
They won't know how many more to "find"
Anybody see this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ztu5Y5obWPk&feature=emb_title
Always check the history of wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Shiva_Ayyadurai&oldid=624606217#Development_of_EMAIL,_ensuing_controversy
ARPANET's RFC's don't completely describe the system he's talking about. He has a number of features and UI innovations on what you might technically call "email", but in reality most users don't give a shit about.
His "email" is closer to what you actually use than the shitty UI ARPANET projects.
That depends on whether or not you consider what Tomlinson created to actually be email instead of text messaging with addresses or not. Most people consider email to be a subset of functionality found in outlook or gmail.
They retconned "network mail" to mean email. The adoption of those standards incorporated in the infrastructure on which email resides doesn't mean they invented email.
You can see that to them network mail was simply the protocol for creating the file. The communications between servers was completely left up to others to implement.
He did
> 3) when it compares to a mostly Democratic county the high end on the horizontal axis is 20 percent and to properly compare them you need to put them on the same scale as the Republican counties and when you do I don't think you'll see any difference
@meglide
I did this comparison for all counties across all states (but not at the presinct level) and It matches what Shiva says it should. https://github.com/Bitcadia/DownBallot/blob/master/Outputs/CountyDownBallotDiffsByStraight.pdf
exactly, bunched and random but with straight lines, no inflection
That's what the MI precinct data should look like.
In other words, Romney's suggestion that "Real" republicans would not vote for Trump is nonsense
Yes, MI looks ok but not at the precinct level
I don't have the precinct level data.
So it all gets hidden inside the county
Not according to the evidence I just posted. The vast majority of individual Highly republican areas for both Wisconsin and Minnesota voted for trump at a higher rate if they didn't vote party line.
Why not MI? They're basically the same states culturally and demographically
That's only one county. It's one dot in all of those on the plots
And WI has Milwaukee, and MN has the Twin Cities. WI and MN both had heavy rioting.
> Happens every election cycle where you vote for the candidate and nothing else
@Elzam
That's not what is being discussed. It's the rate at which it happens by how Republican the county is.
Michigan is suppressed compared to other similar states. Why?
364 days out of the year I murder nobody. 1 Day a year, I murder 1 person.
I'm mostly peaceful.
You have to do some min max to figure out how many people didn't vote for the top level candidate
So the diff between the lowest number vote in that party, and the highest is the minimum possible total # of none down ballot votes.
But non-down ballot votes could (and almost certainly do) exceed this number, and they mix/match to come with the numbers they have.
The problem is that aggregating the data at the county level can never show what Shiva says. If the syphon happens at the precinct level, that simply lowers the one dot you have for a county.
You'd have to scrape every precinct.
If all of the counties have this syphon, then every dot just looks like it was shifted down equally.
Seriously, Michigan non-down ballot voters are suppressed by a minimum of 50% next to MN, IL, and WI https://bitcadia.github.io/DownBallot/Outputs/CountyDownBallotDiffsByStraightMI.html
None, but we're only comparing people who didn't use that
They found the precinct data. probably from michigan
He plotted exact numbers of ballots checked as Party Ticket, and exact numbers of non-party ticket per precinct. He then plotted percentage of party ticket republican per precinct on the x axis, and percentage of individual votes for trump on the y axis.
It's not that the some percentage broke. It's that the percentage that broke increased with how republican the precinct was. But also that it didn't start increasing until the precinct was 25% Republican
They are comparing the fraction, not the total amount
So it's an increasing fraction of total voters yes?
When you say % republican, do you mean % voted party ticket republican, or % registered republicans?
Yeah, agreed
Still the down ballot comparisons are relevant cross states
> I agree, which is why this analysis is critical. If there's no manipulation, further analysis will show that. Statistics isn't useful for proving anything, it useful in showing you where to look for evidence.
@stevesirag
Indeed. The most obvious place to me is to look at Michigan. https://bitcadia.github.io/DownBallot/Outputs/CountyDownBallotDiffsByStraightCompare.html?First=MI&Second=IL%2CMN%2CWI
Plan A: Win the election outright.
Plan B: Challenge votes in the courts
Plan C: Even if you can't "Prove" in court, you can show it to be so obvious on consideration of the evidence that you force the hands of the State Legislatures to not certify the results and instead Send Delegates to vote for you.
> Also, I'm not clear on what exactly the data mean... for instance OK, which voted 63% for Trump, the slope starts below the zero mark.
@stevesirag
Here's the exact algorithm
https://github.com/Bitcadia/DownBallot/blob/cc42ec87d94d347f49ea0667b553e70683e18d90/Data.ts#L159
The purpose is to display the % of straight party tickets, and the % of split tickets, and then display the % each candidate got of split tickets as a function of the % they got of straight tickets.
Let me know if you see an error in my math
No, the more heavily partisan a county is, the more likely the split voter is to vote for the opposite President
Here's a csv of the equations. https://json-csv.com/c/aiXI
It'll be in alphabetical order
Yes
Make sure you download the new link I just edited (I had the candidates reversed)
The problem as I see it is that the split voter in Michigan is implausibly more likely to vote Biden than in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and even Illinois
Like 2X
Also, not that this is the theoretical maximum of straight party tickets.
Hmm, I just updated the data to assume a 10% of the theoretical maximum straight tickets are actually split tickets, which overlap on the party candidate with the least votes
Hmmm, ok
Let me see if I can generate it better
@stevesirag Here you go https://json-csv.com/c/ece5
Minnesota's senate is Republican, not their house.
But Wisconsin is almost the same make up
I have another set of charts.
https://bitcadia.github.io/DownBallot/ratio.html?First=MI%2CWI%2CIL%2CPA%2CIN%2COH%2CFL
Philadelphia has CRAZY independent leaning toward Biden
Remember how we said the more partisan a county is, the lower the ratio their percent of the independent vote is? Yeah that didn't happen in Philly. https://bitcadia.github.io/DownBallot/ratio.html
The closest I can find are Fulton and Dekalb in GA
Also, Philideplphia has almost as many split votes as party line votes.
I smell some BS
Good lord. Detroit has 150% split ballots to straight party votes...
Hatreon
If anybody wants to see how non down ballot votes in counties of swing states voted. https://bitcadia.github.io/DownBallot/Outputs/StraightIndividualRatioCompare.html
@realz Yeah, I have no data on 2012.
Yep... Like the Cities on the top left here.
It's an honest city...
It means How much the straight ballots in that city vote for Trump or Biden
Red means the # of people who didn't vote straight party ticket voted for Trump minus the people who didn't vot straight party ticket who voted for biden
Blue is the reverse
It would mean that 90% of people who voted straight party were Republican, but the number of people who voted individual out numbered straight party and voted more Democrat. The size of the bubble is how many more of those people voted Biden than Trump
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