There were people from my parish and CD who wore Cao shirts after he won in LA-2 in 2008.

Which was a massive upset

In a big Democrat-moving year where Obama had coattails the dude won a majority-black district as a Republican

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2006

btw, let's compare raw numbers

total vote count in 2018 for the GOP is probably going to be higher than in 2014, but not as high as in 2006

40,081,282

oh, and a lot of big chains advertise but don't do business in Southeast Louisiana

They might be in Mississippi, Texas, or another region of Louisiana though.

total vote count in 2018 for the Democrats is probably going to be quite a bit higher than in 2014, maybe around the same as in 2006

42,338,795

there's a good chance it could be less though

So I could see a NJ candidate buying ads in NYC.

or the entire state of New York

Well that's realistic

But Florida/California isn't

What about FL/CA?

that's where the ads played, on a plane ride

so I just compared the Senate 2014 Primary total in Texas to the Senate 2018 Primary total

percent increase for the GOP of 17.4%

now, let's assume that we have the same percent increase for the nationwide vote count (thing is, it could vary quite a bit ,but let's just assume it for simplicity)

a percent increase of 17.4% from a 40,081,282 total is 47,055,425

now, maybe the nationwide total will be higher or lower, but let's assume it's going to be that

now, let's take a look at the Democrats' total in 2006

which was 42,338,795

if the nationwide total is 47,055,425 to 42,338,795 that's going to be an increase in R seats

but the thing is, that's based on assumptions that might be completely faulty

1. That the percent increase from 2014 to 2018 in TX Primaries is going to be the same percent increase nationwide
2. That D's won't get as high a raw vote count in 2018 as they did in 2006

But yeah, looking to the election in LA-02, it takes very wild circumstances for an R to win in a black majority district.

I think it could have been by a wider margin if it wasn't the same election Obama ran in

The justification people gave was...

It was raining on the day of the run-off so black turnout was very low.

heh

Surprise surprise, we won by TURNOUT

In a 67% black district

Actually to be serious

Dollar Bill Jefferson's corruption case helped a ton.

@Nuke have you ever been to New Orleans? What do you think of that place

@Deleted User of course I have haha

I live in suburban New Orleans.

New Orleans is a massive ghetto.

There's better areas

but it's like

There are people in New Orleans who will steal cars and then drive them off the road and then back into the road to destroy it to not be bored

We need welfare cuts, and we need them now.

They cut my dad's pension for THAT.