Message from @Nuke

Discord ID: 459647989040939020


2018-06-22 09:14:38 UTC  

I saw one on my plane ride from FL to CA.

2018-06-22 09:14:44 UTC  

there's another one though where he goes "I support marriage equality and equal pay for equal work"

2018-06-22 09:14:44 UTC  

He really shouldn't do that.

2018-06-22 09:14:52 UTC  

it's NJ though

2018-06-22 09:14:57 UTC  

really shouldn't do what ?

2018-06-22 09:15:04 UTC  

No, I mean paying for out of state ads

2018-06-22 09:15:08 UTC  

That's just stupid.

2018-06-22 09:15:18 UTC  

ah, well there are lots of New Jerseyites in New York I guess

2018-06-22 09:15:28 UTC  

not on a plane from FL to CA

2018-06-22 09:15:30 UTC  

actually, I think the channel my mom watches often features New Jersey news

2018-06-22 09:15:31 UTC  

oh

2018-06-22 09:15:33 UTC  

hmm

2018-06-22 09:15:35 UTC  

Yeah, also it's kinda inevitable

2018-06-22 09:15:37 UTC  

yeah, I wonder why that happened

2018-06-22 09:15:45 UTC  

I see a lot of ads for elections in neighboring parishes.

2018-06-22 09:15:47 UTC  

FL to CA doesn't make sense

2018-06-22 09:16:17 UTC  

It's just the ad money is so expensive over in NJ, and I get he's a rich guy

2018-06-22 09:16:31 UTC  

But I think physical signs would be a lot more effective than ad space

2018-06-22 09:16:32 UTC  

There were people from my parish and CD who wore Cao shirts after he won in LA-2 in 2008.

2018-06-22 09:16:36 UTC  

Which was a massive upset

2018-06-22 09:17:00 UTC  

In a big Democrat-moving year where Obama had coattails the dude won a majority-black district as a Republican

2018-06-22 09:20:33 UTC  

total vote count in 2018 for the GOP is probably going to be higher than in 2014, but not as high as in 2006

2018-06-22 09:20:36 UTC  

40,081,282

2018-06-22 09:20:54 UTC  

oh, and a lot of big chains advertise but don't do business in Southeast Louisiana

2018-06-22 09:21:12 UTC  

They might be in Mississippi, Texas, or another region of Louisiana though.

2018-06-22 09:21:13 UTC  

total vote count in 2018 for the Democrats is probably going to be quite a bit higher than in 2014, maybe around the same as in 2006

42,338,795

there's a good chance it could be less though

2018-06-22 09:21:21 UTC  

So I could see a NJ candidate buying ads in NYC.

2018-06-22 09:21:29 UTC  

or the entire state of New York

2018-06-22 09:21:44 UTC  

Well that's realistic

2018-06-22 09:21:55 UTC  

But Florida/California isn't

2018-06-22 09:23:18 UTC  

What about FL/CA?

2018-06-22 09:23:31 UTC  

that's where the ads played, on a plane ride

2018-06-22 09:24:05 UTC  

so I just compared the Senate 2014 Primary total in Texas to the Senate 2018 Primary total

percent increase for the GOP of 17.4%

2018-06-22 09:24:35 UTC  

now, let's assume that we have the same percent increase for the nationwide vote count (thing is, it could vary quite a bit ,but let's just assume it for simplicity)

2018-06-22 09:25:45 UTC  

a percent increase of 17.4% from a 40,081,282 total is 47,055,425

now, maybe the nationwide total will be higher or lower, but let's assume it's going to be that

2018-06-22 09:25:56 UTC  

now, let's take a look at the Democrats' total in 2006

2018-06-22 09:26:09 UTC  

which was 42,338,795

2018-06-22 09:26:45 UTC  

if the nationwide total is 47,055,425 to 42,338,795 that's going to be an increase in R seats

2018-06-22 09:27:01 UTC  

but the thing is, that's based on assumptions that might be completely faulty

2018-06-22 09:27:33 UTC  

1. That the percent increase from 2014 to 2018 in TX Primaries is going to be the same percent increase nationwide
2. That D's won't get as high a raw vote count in 2018 as they did in 2006