Message from @Deleted User
Discord ID: 459650291814367234
But I think physical signs would be a lot more effective than ad space
There were people from my parish and CD who wore Cao shirts after he won in LA-2 in 2008.
Which was a massive upset
In a big Democrat-moving year where Obama had coattails the dude won a majority-black district as a Republican
total vote count in 2018 for the GOP is probably going to be higher than in 2014, but not as high as in 2006
40,081,282
oh, and a lot of big chains advertise but don't do business in Southeast Louisiana
They might be in Mississippi, Texas, or another region of Louisiana though.
total vote count in 2018 for the Democrats is probably going to be quite a bit higher than in 2014, maybe around the same as in 2006
42,338,795
there's a good chance it could be less though
So I could see a NJ candidate buying ads in NYC.
or the entire state of New York
Well that's realistic
But Florida/California isn't
What about FL/CA?
that's where the ads played, on a plane ride
so I just compared the Senate 2014 Primary total in Texas to the Senate 2018 Primary total
percent increase for the GOP of 17.4%
now, let's assume that we have the same percent increase for the nationwide vote count (thing is, it could vary quite a bit ,but let's just assume it for simplicity)
a percent increase of 17.4% from a 40,081,282 total is 47,055,425
now, maybe the nationwide total will be higher or lower, but let's assume it's going to be that
now, let's take a look at the Democrats' total in 2006
if the nationwide total is 47,055,425 to 42,338,795 that's going to be an increase in R seats
but the thing is, that's based on assumptions that might be completely faulty
1. That the percent increase from 2014 to 2018 in TX Primaries is going to be the same percent increase nationwide
2. That D's won't get as high a raw vote count in 2018 as they did in 2006
But yeah, looking to the election in LA-02, it takes very wild circumstances for an R to win in a black majority district.
I think it could have been by a wider margin if it wasn't the same election Obama ran in
The justification people gave was...
It was raining on the day of the run-off so black turnout was very low.
heh
Surprise surprise, we won by TURNOUT
In a 67% black district
Actually to be serious
Dollar Bill Jefferson's corruption case helped a ton.
@Nuke have you ever been to New Orleans? What do you think of that place
@Deleted User of course I have haha
I live in suburban New Orleans.
New Orleans is a massive ghetto.
There's better areas
but it's like
There are people in New Orleans who will steal cars and then drive them off the road and then back into the road to destroy it to not be bored
We need welfare cuts, and we need them now.