Message from @Deleted User

Discord ID: 459650291814367234


2018-06-22 09:16:31 UTC  

But I think physical signs would be a lot more effective than ad space

2018-06-22 09:16:32 UTC  

There were people from my parish and CD who wore Cao shirts after he won in LA-2 in 2008.

2018-06-22 09:16:36 UTC  

Which was a massive upset

2018-06-22 09:17:00 UTC  

In a big Democrat-moving year where Obama had coattails the dude won a majority-black district as a Republican

2018-06-22 09:20:33 UTC  

total vote count in 2018 for the GOP is probably going to be higher than in 2014, but not as high as in 2006

2018-06-22 09:20:36 UTC  

40,081,282

2018-06-22 09:20:54 UTC  

oh, and a lot of big chains advertise but don't do business in Southeast Louisiana

2018-06-22 09:21:12 UTC  

They might be in Mississippi, Texas, or another region of Louisiana though.

2018-06-22 09:21:13 UTC  

total vote count in 2018 for the Democrats is probably going to be quite a bit higher than in 2014, maybe around the same as in 2006

42,338,795

there's a good chance it could be less though

2018-06-22 09:21:21 UTC  

So I could see a NJ candidate buying ads in NYC.

2018-06-22 09:21:29 UTC  

or the entire state of New York

2018-06-22 09:21:44 UTC  

Well that's realistic

2018-06-22 09:21:55 UTC  

But Florida/California isn't

2018-06-22 09:23:18 UTC  

What about FL/CA?

2018-06-22 09:23:31 UTC  

that's where the ads played, on a plane ride

2018-06-22 09:24:05 UTC  

so I just compared the Senate 2014 Primary total in Texas to the Senate 2018 Primary total

percent increase for the GOP of 17.4%

2018-06-22 09:24:35 UTC  

now, let's assume that we have the same percent increase for the nationwide vote count (thing is, it could vary quite a bit ,but let's just assume it for simplicity)

2018-06-22 09:25:45 UTC  

a percent increase of 17.4% from a 40,081,282 total is 47,055,425

now, maybe the nationwide total will be higher or lower, but let's assume it's going to be that

2018-06-22 09:25:56 UTC  

now, let's take a look at the Democrats' total in 2006

2018-06-22 09:26:09 UTC  

which was 42,338,795

2018-06-22 09:26:45 UTC  

if the nationwide total is 47,055,425 to 42,338,795 that's going to be an increase in R seats

2018-06-22 09:27:01 UTC  

but the thing is, that's based on assumptions that might be completely faulty

2018-06-22 09:27:33 UTC  

1. That the percent increase from 2014 to 2018 in TX Primaries is going to be the same percent increase nationwide
2. That D's won't get as high a raw vote count in 2018 as they did in 2006

2018-06-22 09:30:21 UTC  

But yeah, looking to the election in LA-02, it takes very wild circumstances for an R to win in a black majority district.

2018-06-22 09:31:55 UTC  

I think it could have been by a wider margin if it wasn't the same election Obama ran in

2018-06-22 09:36:12 UTC  

The justification people gave was...

2018-06-22 09:36:22 UTC  

It was raining on the day of the run-off so black turnout was very low.

2018-06-22 09:36:31 UTC  

heh

2018-06-22 09:36:36 UTC  

Surprise surprise, we won by TURNOUT

2018-06-22 09:36:46 UTC  

In a 67% black district

2018-06-22 09:38:04 UTC  

Actually to be serious

2018-06-22 09:38:14 UTC  

Dollar Bill Jefferson's corruption case helped a ton.

2018-06-22 09:38:17 UTC  

@Nuke have you ever been to New Orleans? What do you think of that place

2018-06-22 09:38:43 UTC  

@Deleted User of course I have haha

2018-06-22 09:38:53 UTC  

I live in suburban New Orleans.

2018-06-22 09:39:03 UTC  

New Orleans is a massive ghetto.

2018-06-22 09:39:09 UTC  

There's better areas

2018-06-22 09:39:11 UTC  

but it's like

2018-06-22 09:39:41 UTC  

There are people in New Orleans who will steal cars and then drive them off the road and then back into the road to destroy it to not be bored

2018-06-22 09:39:56 UTC  

We need welfare cuts, and we need them now.