you folks'd be calling it solid if the polls were the other way round

One thing that might be worth considering is overestimation of democratic turnout affecting polling down the ballot. Like if they're expecting the dems to be up by 7% and adjust for that then every single election polled would be off if the democrats were only up by 3% in that state.

I definitely have a hard time calling bullshit if the polling aggregate has the democrat up by over 7 points though.

OH-12 is a good predictive measure of Democratic turnout.

and it's big

It's a fucking special election that most people didn't even know was going on, and they still lost. No one's going to forget the mid-terms.

https://thefederalist.com/2018/09/20/huge-spikes-democrat-voter-turnout-across-country-alarm-gop/ - even the federalist notices the signs.

And they're by no means a liberal outlet.

I’m sick and tired of all this Black pilling crap

You 2 are the new Button and Zak

it's not black pilling, dumb cunt. it's being realistic

just because i don't think we'll be winning 60+ seats doesn't mean I'm black pilling.

No you’re a blackpiller

if i hear you making that argument again, i'll send you to mars

I think at best we'll get 55-56 senate seats, at worst 52-53.

You believe these bullshit polls that are completely retarded and made outside of the state, where they completely underpoll Republicans.

I even think we'll win the House by a narrow margin.

So if an internal GOP poll offers a similar polling range to the aggregate, does that mean they're also purposefully undersampling Republicans?

If they’re in the state, then they aren’t

I'm not too worried about the increase in hard-liner democrat turnout, because it will be reciprocated by drumpfkins. The elections are going to be decided by moderates and independents. This is what has me wracking my brains.

@Rhodesiaboo Polls are made through sampling voters in the state. The pollsters are just outside of the state. The RESPONDENTS themselves are in the state.

And you don’t think they only poll Blue areas?

You think ALL of them do? So Rasmussen, a pollster traditionally regarded as having a pro-GOP bias, offers a similar polling range as a pollster traditionally regarded as having a pro-Democrat bias, Rasmussen must ALSO be polling just blue areas?

Even the GOP internal polls have Sherrod Brown ahead around +4 and they pick and choose the statistics which favour them.

Just as the Democrats do.

Rasmussen isn’t pro-republican at all

That’s bullshit

can you name me a pollster you like?

None, because they’re all unlikable pricks#

Polls are unnecessary and bring false hope.

mm, i suggest studying the theory of polling, how it's conducted and what factors can contribute to its inaccuracy.

rather than always resorting to baseless conspiracy you and I both know you cannot prove

People actually waste their time Studying Polling?

What losers

I tend to prefer the RCP average to any particular pollster, but you can go see the generic ballot and it's all over the place. Polls are pretty much whatever you want them to be, if your goal is just trying to prove your side is going to win. It makes more sense to look at polls and use them to gauge voter groups. We need to be looking at minority turnout, party hard-liner turnout, and the white working class.

And partisan turnout is very high. Look at Arizona turnout. It's NEVER been that close between Democrats and Republicans in a very long time.

Look at New Hampshire. Democratic turnout HIGHER than GOP turnout. First time in history.

Florida turnout, the Democratic-Republican ratio has never been this close to 1:1 in history.

A silver lining is that Republican turnout is really not much lower than 2016 and in many cases quite a bit higher.

So it's not like 2010 for the Democrats where their turnout was low and GOP turnout was meteoric.

GOP turnout is good and Democratic turnout is shockingly high.