But that aggregate is including rather nonsensical polls like the +14 we saw the other day.

Nate Bronze gives us a 1 in 5 chance?

20% happens sometimes

Some give 20, some 25, some around 40.

I think it’s about 5

5%?

5% is too low

*rolls eyes*

if you look at FiveThirtyEights model

you must be fun at parties

the number of seats Democrats are ahead in isn't as much as you think

the reason their odds are good, is because they have a 25% chance or so in a bunch of seats

@[Lex] I could be a lot worse. Many of the Dems at US Election Atlas un ironically think that the Dems will pick up 80+ seats. Some think that Mo Brooks, Steve King, and Katie Arrington will lose

I have the most “optimistic” house rating amongst all of them probably

Obama's approval rating in 2014 was worse than Trump's current rating, according to rcp. This gave the generic ballot 5.7 R. Factor in boomer chads and hopefully lower minority turnout and the dems should do worse. Factor in gerry mandering and their opportunity to pick up seats looks pretty bad. The only reason I'm nervous is the raw strength of their generic ballot polling.

what's up with Utah?

as much as Romney is establishment on a lot of issues, he's actually pretty reasonable on immigration

the fact that he's in a Safer-than-Safe race and is still running against illegal immigration tells you something

I'm hoping for a Romney redemption arc. It was cool as fuck to see Romney say "I was even harder on illegal immigration than Trump back in 2012 because I opposed DACA." Since he's in an extremely safe seat his only opportunity for career advancement will be to be pro-Trump, so even if he cucks out on something it'll be a different type of cucking out than those guys who are (((moderates))) to get reelected.

Romney on the issues wasn't too bad in 2012

strong on immigration, he wanted to label China a currency manipulator, etc.

if you look at the areas he gained ground in, those were the same areas Trump improved a lot in

my parents backed him in the primary in 2008

Romney didn't win Whites by 20, closer to 17

He only got like 57%, and I know Obama cleared 40%

Romney did slightly better than Trump in absolute terms among Whites, but did worse margin wise

and Trump had a far better distribution

gained votes in states that mattered, lost them in states that didn't

ehh, I don't know about that

that relies on exit poll estimates of the composition of the electorate, which are faulty

one second, I think there was an article about this

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

I’m tired guys

forever

You want me to die?

Republican establishmentarians are worse than socialists in my opinion.

Socialists do not fill a vacuum in the right wing for something better, while the establishment does.

As a matter of fact, I find it preferable if the democrats completely turn to socialism and make themselves less palatable in most of the country.

The establishment of the Republicans must be torn down if we wish to see any real change made other than in the tax rate. If we were to clear out the scum in the party holding it back, then we can consolidate a GOP advantage that doesn't maintain the amnesty coalition.