Message from @Julien Blanc

Discord ID: 500473436397764609


2018-10-12 06:15:01 UTC  

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2018-10-12 21:10:06 UTC  
2018-10-12 21:21:31 UTC  

Chemicals. In. The. Water.

2018-10-12 21:23:08 UTC  

Contrail Kyrsten!

2018-10-12 23:49:56 UTC  

@Julien Blanc https://uselectionatlas.org/ENDORSE/SENATE/2018/endorse.php Do you think the Atlas endorsements in MD & DE look like good indicators?

2018-10-12 23:50:31 UTC  

Carper has a domestic violence scandal (and he admitted he did it) and Maryland has a black Republican.

2018-10-13 00:10:18 UTC  

I wish Drumpf would've talked about Rennaci more during that rally. It's great that he's trying to get people to vote for himself by proxy, but so few people even know these rust belt guys' names.

2018-10-13 00:27:16 UTC  

there was an Ohio rally today?

2018-10-13 00:28:07 UTC  

yes

2018-10-13 00:30:43 UTC  

Pretty low energy. Kansas was absolutely on fire because it was the same day as Kavanaugh's confirmation. Iowa was great too. This one wasn't as bad as places like North Dakota and Montana though. Gonna watch PA later.

2018-10-13 00:50:16 UTC  

I wonder if she's voting for McSally or Sinema

2018-10-13 00:51:17 UTC  

there's no reason for her to not vote McSally

2018-10-13 00:53:05 UTC  

McCain may be annoying, but aside from your Boot/Will/Navaro/Scarborough/McMullin types getting paychecks from CNN/MSNBC - no GOP politico has any real reason to oppose McSally

2018-10-13 00:53:42 UTC  

highly informed voters/commenters rarely swing unless their entire ideology changes

2018-10-13 00:53:54 UTC  

the vast majority of swing voters are low information

2018-10-13 00:54:48 UTC  

Probably McSally

2018-10-13 01:02:35 UTC  

@reagenet

2018-10-13 01:02:45 UTC  

@reagent I wonder how the Democrats will do with low-info swing voters this year

2018-10-13 01:08:05 UTC  

I hope we get another rally in Ohio

2018-10-13 02:52:44 UTC  

if only they did this for citizens effected by it

2018-10-13 02:58:21 UTC  

@Amsel Wow, that's good PR.

2018-10-13 23:25:21 UTC  

Debate: Jon Tester vs Matt Rosendale

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPPBiZcunmk

2018-10-13 23:25:27 UTC  

and there's another one happening right this moment

2018-10-14 00:38:51 UTC  

I was examining some of the demographic data of the Nevadan poll. It undersamples minorities by two percent but luckily for the Republicans it oversamples women and younger people.

2018-10-14 00:39:13 UTC  

Unfortunately they were unable to ascertain whether the undecided voters were more of a GOP or Democrat slant.

2018-10-14 00:39:19 UTC  

Which is to suggest they're rather split.

2018-10-14 00:39:30 UTC  

If they're split, that's also a reasonably good sign for the Republican.

2018-10-14 02:25:19 UTC  

@[Lex] did you check out the raw data

2018-10-14 02:30:09 UTC  

Not yet.

2018-10-14 02:30:32 UTC  

Just their lack of assessment of the data

2018-10-14 03:37:17 UTC  

What do you mean undersample? Did they not weigh it?

2018-10-14 05:30:25 UTC  

that is something I was wondering

2018-10-14 05:30:40 UTC  

even if they did not get quite enough Hispanics, couldn't they re-weight the data to control for that?

2018-10-14 20:10:07 UTC  

here's the new Jon Tester vs Matt Rosendale debate

2018-10-15 17:34:22 UTC  

Helldawg up 7 points in new poll