Message from @Amsel

Discord ID: 501447760508223488


2018-10-13 01:02:35 UTC  

@reagenet

2018-10-13 01:02:45 UTC  

@reagent I wonder how the Democrats will do with low-info swing voters this year

2018-10-13 01:08:05 UTC  

I hope we get another rally in Ohio

2018-10-13 02:52:44 UTC  

if only they did this for citizens effected by it

2018-10-13 02:58:21 UTC  

@Amsel Wow, that's good PR.

2018-10-13 23:25:21 UTC  

Debate: Jon Tester vs Matt Rosendale

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPPBiZcunmk

2018-10-13 23:25:27 UTC  

and there's another one happening right this moment

2018-10-14 00:38:51 UTC  

I was examining some of the demographic data of the Nevadan poll. It undersamples minorities by two percent but luckily for the Republicans it oversamples women and younger people.

2018-10-14 00:39:13 UTC  

Unfortunately they were unable to ascertain whether the undecided voters were more of a GOP or Democrat slant.

2018-10-14 00:39:19 UTC  

Which is to suggest they're rather split.

2018-10-14 00:39:30 UTC  

If they're split, that's also a reasonably good sign for the Republican.

2018-10-14 02:25:19 UTC  

@[Lex] did you check out the raw data

2018-10-14 02:30:09 UTC  

Not yet.

2018-10-14 02:30:32 UTC  

Just their lack of assessment of the data

2018-10-14 03:37:17 UTC  

What do you mean undersample? Did they not weigh it?

2018-10-14 05:30:25 UTC  

that is something I was wondering

2018-10-14 05:30:40 UTC  

even if they did not get quite enough Hispanics, couldn't they re-weight the data to control for that?

2018-10-14 20:10:07 UTC  

here's the new Jon Tester vs Matt Rosendale debate

2018-10-15 17:34:22 UTC  

Helldawg up 7 points in new poll

2018-10-15 17:34:35 UTC  

YAAAAAS

2018-10-15 17:36:37 UTC  

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller destroying Wacky Jacky

2018-10-15 17:38:59 UTC  

wew

2018-10-15 17:39:04 UTC  

emerson is quite shit but damn

2018-10-15 17:40:08 UTC  

Heller is probably up 1-2 in reality

2018-10-15 17:42:39 UTC  

yeah it's obviously a bullshit poll but it's good news in terms of polling the aggregate

2018-10-15 17:42:46 UTC  

heller went from a pure tie to leading 1.3

2018-10-15 19:33:25 UTC  

They're going to poll AZ-SEN !

2018-10-15 19:37:19 UTC  

wew

2018-10-15 20:01:35 UTC  

I hope they also poll the Indiana and Missouri Senate races. @Julien Blanc

2018-10-15 20:03:07 UTC  

yep

2018-10-15 20:03:22 UTC  

tbh Arizona is obvously going to be close

2018-10-15 20:03:32 UTC  

I'd rather have more polls from Indiana, Missouri, and Montana

2018-10-15 20:12:08 UTC  

Arizona is a true tossup this cycle.

2018-10-15 20:51:21 UTC  

"Arizona is the meth lab of democracy."

2018-10-15 20:51:29 UTC  

If AZ is a toss-up, PA is on the playing field.

2018-10-15 20:53:58 UTC  

I think that a lot of races are a lot closer than the polls tell us