Message from @Pielover19
Discord ID: 483804560503209994
Hello
My House 2018 Prediction based solely off out Cook PVI ratings and predictions by 6 different outlets (see House 2018 Election Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018#Election_ratings)
Dark Color = Party Safe
Medium Color = Party Hold
Light Color = Party Gain
Gray = Toss-Up/Conflicting Predictions (ex. - if Cook PVI says R but the predictions say Tilt/Lean/Likely D, then Tossup)
Hopefully we get that map
Current House Composition is 236-193 (R Majority)
So the prediction above gives almost a dozen seat cushion before losing the majority at 217 seats.
I'm looking at the Sabato ratings. Sorry, but they're just retarded.
Thank the lord for the Red Storm Crystal Ball, am I right?
RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES:
Wisconsin-03: Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat
California-50: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Arizona-02: Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat
Kansas-03: Likely Republican to Safe Republican
Nebraska-02: Lean Republican to Likely Republican
New York-18: Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat
Florida-07: Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat
@Pielover19 We just had a poll come out showing that the Democrat in FL-7 is only 1 point ahead, within the margin of error.
It's highly unlikely that it's a safe Democrat district.
just a few months ago I thought it would be safe for Stephanie Murphy
@Nuke This map is horribly biased. Just looking at my District, it went for Clinton, is rated a Toss-up already, 2 out of 3 polls have Porter ahead, 1 poll puts Walter ahead by 1. No party preference voters in my district prefer D to R by a 2:1 ratio, Walters has a 43% unfavorable rating and a 38% favorable rating, and according to Global Strategy Group found that "a clear majority of voters prefer a Democrat who will be a check on Trump (55%) rather than a Republican who will help Trump pass his agenda (40%)." Furthermore, Democrats have a turnout advantage as the watchdog Party.
The only evidence you have to say it's lean GOP is registration and incumbency.
Registration is incredibly unreliable, and incumbency only somewhat applies because people here don't Like Trump, and she supports Trump's agenda.
And I would assume you made the same judgments with other tilt democrat or tossup districts.
I derive my ratings from Inside Elections, and in this case I just went with their rating for CA-45.
They're being overly fair.
I mean
overly biased lol
They're also a biased, left-wing rating org.
There's no way you can look at CA-45 and tell me that's lean.
Of course
I intentionally use them because that way, you cannot accuse them of bias.
Thats how you energize your party duh Nuke.
If you make districts appear harder than they really are to take.
Your voters won't get lazuy.