Message from @Pielover19
Discord ID: 492692058025230339
Handel's most likely got it.
Incumbency advantage and polling advantage
Fundamentals and polling favour Handel for now
Unless Trump does something stupid, we should be fine.
Correct. Also, the district is 60% non-Hispanic white.
The district is also White so, I think we got it
And in Georgia, a very high percentage of whites vote Republican.
Yep
Like most Southern States
Trump 51, whites 53
What?
Trump won 51% in Georgia, a 53% white state.
Ohh okay
RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES:
NJ-07: Tilt Republican to Lean Democrat
NY-27: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
MN-03: Tossup to Tilt Democrat
CO-06: Tilt Republican to Tossup
TX-07: Tilt Republican to Lean Republican
TX-02: Safe Republican to Likely Republican
TX-23: Lean Democrat to Tilt Democrat
WA-03: Safe Republican to Likely Republican
http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/XpAqM1p
@Pielover19 what is happening in NJ-07?
Iowa is probably too generous to GOP IMO .... IA-03 is tossup territory (if tilting R) and IA-01 has been triaged by the national Republicans.
At the same time, how is TX-23 lean Dem, when polling has Hurd up, and the TX State Senate 19 race (largely co-terminus with the district) went Red?
New York Times polling has been bad. I took the State Senate election in account when I shifted the district to Tilt Dem.
Iowa is unpredictable.
Why do you say the NYTimes polling is bad
Sample size of 500 for each district, which is abysmal.
@Pielover19 wouldn't all these House polls so far be abysmal then
I think that the sheer margin Hurd received is enough to make the poll somewhat credible.
Even if it's not 10, it's probably more like 2 or 3.
But that's a win.
I'm skeptical.
Barilojian*
@Yellowhammer Show me your house prediction.
On the 270towin map.
@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Where're the Libertarian endorsements?
Oh I see.
You DON'T find Al Green based?
This is a little optimistic
The wheels could really come off in Florida
And NC could be a real dummymander
Your prediction's more pessimistic than the most pessimistic professional poll.
Or is this simply your prediction WITHOUT tossups?
Without tossup a
I see.