Special Election on tuesday

Likely Democrat pickup

state legislature I assume?

considering the circumstances, it's probably going to be a pickup, yes

yes

I wonder if the Democratic turnout in these special elections is close to their 'ceiling'

that is, it'll be hard for them to get much higher than the votes they've gotten

so on November 6, there will likely not be much more than 87,299 voting for Tipirneni

what are your thoughts <@&432627153805377536> <@&399683356218097667>

here's GA-06 in comparison. Stooksbury doesn't even have a picture out of him, and ran a non campaign. There was speculation he didn't even exist.

with all the millions and millions of dollars that Ossof spent (more than Handel), he only got 600 more votes than a guy who people speculated didn't even exist

@Marini put that in Misc Discussions

Oh dang strict moderation

Alrighty

with all the work Doug Jones put in, he got 92% of Hillary's vote. You could consider this to be around the ceiling for Democrats in Alabama

Correct. Democrats have a Hillary-ceiling vote nearly everywhere.

At least in deep red states

assuming the same pattern holds, it will be tough to take Pennsylvania from Bob Casey

@Nuke yeah, this ceiling could just be for deep red areas

I actually doubt Hillary's voter turnout will stay in areas that the media proudly proclaims will be smashed by muh blue tsunami

This nominated the GOP in 2010 but Republicans had neither the internal problems nor the the external problems the Democrats are facing.

yeah, there are going to be Democratic voters who turned out for Hillary who will stay home. The question is, how many?

also, there are going to be Democratic voters who stayed home for Hillary who will turn out for this November. So, another question is, how many ?

GOP turnout in these special elections has plummeted, but that could partly be the fact that they're special elections, which makes them think "why bother?"

for PA-18 and AZ-08, it's just ~6-7 months away from November

In Virginia, 500K stayed home--and many more Trump voters stayed home or voted Northam _because he ran as a moderate_.

Gillespie focused almost entirely on federal issues, and on each and every one of those issues, Northam compromised.

So it became literally a symbolic vote for Trump--and nothing more.

I think Trump is aware of the fact that he needs to fire with all cylinders between now and November

he rallied for Saccone, he sent out a Tweet for Lesko (and for Handel)

he'll likely do even more for the general election in November

Trump has probably been aware of that since November 2016.

He needs to win the midterms.

which is better than what Obama did in 2010

IIRC Obama just sat on his ass for 2010

There were already scandals about Democrats rigging the midterms in 2016.