Message from @Deleted User
Discord ID: 448923678046945280
West Virginia Senate GE: Manchin (D) 47% (+7) Morrisey (R) 40% Hollen (L) 4%
For Georgia in 2014, the dem was unopposed which might have something to do with it, not as much of a reason to go out to the polls. Still a bad thing though, I'd have to agree.
also, looks like nuke has a new pfp huh
I think 2022 is too far out to make any determinate calls, depending on how 2018 and 2020 go, there could be a number of ways it could turn out. If the environment is good with a productive congress and we've built up a very sturdy majority in the Senate, it will be manageable. It is a pretty bad map for us generally though, and probably devastating if we had that map this year.
@🎃Boo-ton🎃 7 points lol
we gotta take em as they come
@FLanon still not sure where BM got that poll that showed McGrath 15 points ahead of Barr
yeah I found it
it was before, not after the primary yesterday
anyway, @Nuke
it was commissioned by the DCCC, so, grain of salt there
500 people asked by landline
about 2022
if Chuck Schumer retires and is replaced by a Roy Moore tier Dem, I can see us taking a seat in New York with a Scott Brown tier R in 2022
same with California and Illinois and Vermont and Connecticut and Maryland
Nevada and New Hampshire and Colorado should be competitive even without a Roy Moore tier Dem
@Pielover19 assuming Trump is POTUS in 2022, it'll be similar to 2018, which means that the environment favors the D's. However, like 2018, that doesn't guarantee a D victory in the same way that a D victory wasn't guaranteed in 2022
*in the same way a D victory wasn't guaranteed in 2002
I might not be so sure it's similar to 2018 depending on some circumstances
>BM literally spending most of xir energy, time, and focus on posting Democrat propaganda
@FLanon something tells me that Trump in his 2nd term would not compromise as much as in his 1st term
If we were to get a mandate congressionally this year followed by a victory in 2020, 2022's environment may be more favorable to Rs, however considering the map, it'll take a lot to get a net gain in the senate.
in the same way that Obama in his 2nd term was less conciliatory in comparison to his first term
also...2022 will be around the time people my age could be winning House seats, come to think of it
the minimum age for the House is 25, but the youngest one right now is Elise Stefanik at 33 (actually, I think Conor Lamb might be a few months younger)
I recall in 2008 a Republican named Aaron Schock won at age 27
Mine would have to be like 2024 or 2026 I think
at the earliest because I do have to start early in this day and age unlike certain people
I think the requirement for state legislature isn't as high
btw, I highly recommend volunteering with the Republican Party in your area this year though
also, speaking of 2022, let's talk about 2020
if the environment is favorable to a Trump re-election....
Ousting Doug Jones in Alabama seems effortless
taking that D seat in New Hampshire is not as easy, but definitely doable. Same thing with the seat in Michigan.
Minnesota should be about as hard as Michigan. Virginia could be around the same level.
in the same way that Democrats in 2012 generally benefited from having Obama at the top of the ballot, Republicans in 2020 will benefit from having Trump at the top of the ballot
if it's a Trump landslide year, I could see the R's taking those other solidly blue states as well, with Scott Brown tier candidates
We'll have to see how far it travels
how far what travels ?
Trump, depending on his performance, he could pave the way for Minnesota, Virginia, Oregon maybe.
It'll depend on 2018 to a large extent, productivity in Congress leading to Trump getting his promises passed would almost certainly secure reelection.
Obama and Trump are similar in many ways, like the fact that their base got pretty frustrated in their first year and a half, but one big difference between Obama and Trump is
Obama won in 2008 at a pretty high level of popularity, but there was nowhere to go but down, so it makes sense that he won by less in 2012
Trump won in 2016 in a very polarizing way, and his popularity was arguably low at the time, but that means there's nowhere to go but up
a huge reason why I'm so optimistic is the "normalization" phenomenon. You know how in the first days of the Trump admin, you had all these leftists screeching about refusing to 'normalize' Trump and how "this is NOT normal. I am literally shaking" ? Well, there's a good reason for them to be scared about that. The reason is because the millions of voters who sat home or voted Hillary or third party could easily view Trump as better than expected, which means that it's not so hard for Trump to win in 2020 at even greater margins
Guys, do you think it’s possible to repeal the 15th amendment?