Message from @Deleted User
Discord ID: 448929919565561856
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about 2022
if Chuck Schumer retires and is replaced by a Roy Moore tier Dem, I can see us taking a seat in New York with a Scott Brown tier R in 2022
same with California and Illinois and Vermont and Connecticut and Maryland
Nevada and New Hampshire and Colorado should be competitive even without a Roy Moore tier Dem
@Pielover19 assuming Trump is POTUS in 2022, it'll be similar to 2018, which means that the environment favors the D's. However, like 2018, that doesn't guarantee a D victory in the same way that a D victory wasn't guaranteed in 2022
*in the same way a D victory wasn't guaranteed in 2002
I might not be so sure it's similar to 2018 depending on some circumstances
>BM literally spending most of xir energy, time, and focus on posting Democrat propaganda
@FLanon something tells me that Trump in his 2nd term would not compromise as much as in his 1st term
If we were to get a mandate congressionally this year followed by a victory in 2020, 2022's environment may be more favorable to Rs, however considering the map, it'll take a lot to get a net gain in the senate.
in the same way that Obama in his 2nd term was less conciliatory in comparison to his first term
also...2022 will be around the time people my age could be winning House seats, come to think of it
the minimum age for the House is 25, but the youngest one right now is Elise Stefanik at 33 (actually, I think Conor Lamb might be a few months younger)
I recall in 2008 a Republican named Aaron Schock won at age 27
Mine would have to be like 2024 or 2026 I think
at the earliest because I do have to start early in this day and age unlike certain people
I think the requirement for state legislature isn't as high
btw, I highly recommend volunteering with the Republican Party in your area this year though
also, speaking of 2022, let's talk about 2020
if the environment is favorable to a Trump re-election....
Ousting Doug Jones in Alabama seems effortless
taking that D seat in New Hampshire is not as easy, but definitely doable. Same thing with the seat in Michigan.
Minnesota should be about as hard as Michigan. Virginia could be around the same level.
in the same way that Democrats in 2012 generally benefited from having Obama at the top of the ballot, Republicans in 2020 will benefit from having Trump at the top of the ballot
if it's a Trump landslide year, I could see the R's taking those other solidly blue states as well, with Scott Brown tier candidates
We'll have to see how far it travels
how far what travels ?
Trump, depending on his performance, he could pave the way for Minnesota, Virginia, Oregon maybe.
It'll depend on 2018 to a large extent, productivity in Congress leading to Trump getting his promises passed would almost certainly secure reelection.
Obama and Trump are similar in many ways, like the fact that their base got pretty frustrated in their first year and a half, but one big difference between Obama and Trump is
Obama won in 2008 at a pretty high level of popularity, but there was nowhere to go but down, so it makes sense that he won by less in 2012
Trump won in 2016 in a very polarizing way, and his popularity was arguably low at the time, but that means there's nowhere to go but up
a huge reason why I'm so optimistic is the "normalization" phenomenon. You know how in the first days of the Trump admin, you had all these leftists screeching about refusing to 'normalize' Trump and how "this is NOT normal. I am literally shaking" ? Well, there's a good reason for them to be scared about that. The reason is because the millions of voters who sat home or voted Hillary or third party could easily view Trump as better than expected, which means that it's not so hard for Trump to win in 2020 at even greater margins
Guys, do you think it’s possible to repeal the 15th amendment?
it's technically possible in the same way that it's technically possible to repeal every other amendment
but the only scenario I see that happening in is if racial relations get to borderline civil war tier
and in that circumstance, we'll see actual civil war before a repeal of the 15th
14th is worse
Repealing the 15th is probably as hard as repealing the 13th.
You'll probably have a better time repealing the 26th or something.
And as FLanon said, the 14th is the worst.
It fucks up the entire country by not only adding an enumerated power for civil rights and giving the Congress the authority to combine it with its commerce authority and other such BS via the Necessary and Proper Clause, but the Supreme Court has fucked it up by making it effectively bind the federal and state levels of government to the same restrictions on power.
Just because the Second Amendment guarantees a federal right to own and use nukes and battleships doesn't mean that it was intended to preserve those rights for states--in one amazingly telling example.
But the theory of Trump being normalized could work out, he's definitely going to need to make some more presidential moves, not as much cucking as just doing stuff a president would do, just overall being more likable. Lot of ways to do it, he could get a dog, go to the world series, but it doesn't really cost him anything politically.
Another example is that states were originally allowed to establish and restrict religion.
And now that they've even made it so that liberal states can pass "rights" and the federal government can be forced to enforce them nationwide, the Fourteenth Amendment is operating in a means far from that which was originally intended.
One of the most hilarious examples of Fourteenth Amendment overreach was that SCOTUS held that the Fourth Amendment created a "right to privacy" which guaranteed married people the right to contraception, then ruled that because unmarried people were not receiving equal protection, the Fourteenth Amendment also applied to unmarried pepole.
NEW: Rep. Tom GARRETT -- a GOP freshman from Virginia -- is considering not seeking reelection and has abruptly parted ways with his chief of staff