until we get polls from specific districts, it won't matter

we need to keep in mind the Democrats are heavily energized this year

their anger has fueled Democratic turnout

Best Senate seat oppurtunities:
1.) Missouri
2.) Indiana
3.) West Virginia
4.) North Dakota
5.) Florida
6.) Minnesota

wait no way oops

Josh Mandel dropped out

that is true

a lot can change in the next months folks

hello and welcome to data

yes, but again, it can be minimized

think we're in for a Nixon-style midterm election,
what I mean by that is,
+2-3 net gain in the Senate, -9-10 net loss in the House, and -8-9 net loss in Governorships

when you look at the number of seats that are up for grabs in the Senate and House, it's almost exactly the same,
so it can be expected the result will be similiar

midterms are seen as referendums on the ruling party

the opposition party usually has higher turnout because their voters are motivated to stop the ruling party's agenda

a net gain in the House?

errrr

remember, there are a _lot_ of vulnerable red seats

REAKING: NEW RATINGS FROM COOK POLITICAL REPORT ON HOUSE CONTROL IN 2018

COOK REPORT SAYS REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO RETAIN CONTROL OF HOUSE WITH 222 SEATS

If the election was held today then

It would be easier to predict if we knew the next item of the Republican legislative agenda

>Khazar

Midterms news:

New Maryland US Senate primary challenger for 2018

If radicals can successfully primary moderate Democrats, it can truly be a red storm

"In northern Minnesota, a region hit hard by the steel slump and layoffs in the iron mines, 70 percent approved of the way Trump is handling the economy and job policy." - Star Tribune, 1/14/18

Florida,

definetly competitive

are you a Cuban

excellent, do you know what district you live in?
If you live in the 26th or 27th, it is vital that you go out and vote this year otherwise Democrats could snatch both seats

safe (R)

fantastic

Rick Scott is the only chance Florida has to electing a Republican

FL voted Nelson three times in a row

Not yet

Trump is still trying to win him over

Scott is concerned because Florida has a habit of punishing the incumbent party during midterms

Scott is good at balancing his approach with Trump

in a swing state, you can't embrace him but you can't distance yourself from him either

I heard Caitlyn Jenner is running for the GOP here

But there's virtually no way a non-Democrat is winning here in the Senate

it's possible that Feinstein gets primaried tho

yep

LOT of vulnerable districts this season

5-10 districts could be lost here alone

I live in Orange county

this used to be a Republican stronghold

Missouri is the best state to flip this year

he's the best option, but Michigan's not going red

it could be competitive in theory

right, we need make each state as competitive as humanly possible

Going after Strange was foolish, he voted for Trump's agenda 98% of the time

oh look at that

hello

State?

Moore was popular among conservatives in Alabama for quite some time

He was known for his religious rulings as a judge for decades,

Bannon or not, he was always likely to win the primary

God, I hope another scandal doesn't break out in the near future

There are two types of GOP voters,

small town voters without college degrees, and college-educated voters in the suburbs

Trump is popular amongst the first, but not the other, which poses trouble for the midterms

I thought that too, but,

in the Virginia gubertorial race,

2 to 1 voters say they voted for Northam to show opposition to Trump

in New Jersey, it was 3 to 1

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/VA

Virginia election data

also, look at this shift from 2016 to 2017

both from Virginia btw

going from +4 Republican to +3 Democrat is a troubling change

true

that's a problem

it shoudn't matter who's on the ticket, staying home because you don't like the candidate undercuts Trump's ability to govern

In 2016, a crapton of Democrats didn't show up to vote for Hillary

over 10,000,000 Democratic voters, actually

Oh,

that reminds me,

there's a special election in March,

Pennsylvania

18th district,

this is concentrated with White Working Class Voters,

(Trump's base)

this election should be an indicator of Trump's actual approval

In general, people don't care about Trump as much as you think

Twitter overrepresents the American liberal/democrat population

here's the thing,

most actions by the federal government don't affect everyday Americans

the only real change under Trump that people will notice is the tax cuts,
people might not realize why they have more money left to spend tho

no way

he'll lose by 70 point margin

ye, he has nothing to really lose at this point

The best thing Trump could do heading in to the midterms is avoid further drama

A weekly/monthly cycle of negative Trump headlines depresses GOP turnout

Oh right,

they reopened the investigation, for those that don't know

but,