Message from @β‚³ U T U M N πŸ¦‹

Discord ID: 631151620687659018


2019-10-08 15:23:57 UTC  

"That's interesting because nowhere in the report they reference does it say anything of the sort"

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/GB2019-Chapter-3-UK-economic-outlook-in-four-Brexit-scenarios.pdf

"The UK is already up to a staggering Β£66bn poorer because of the Brexit vote after economic growth evaporated, experts warn today."

2019-10-08 15:24:26 UTC  

Posted earlier as an independant article and was addressed by @β‚³ U T U M N πŸ¦‹

2019-10-08 15:24:43 UTC  

I was directly quoting them

2019-10-08 15:27:22 UTC  

β€œThe UK economy is already around Β£60bn smaller than it would have been without a vote to leave the European Union,” said Christian Schulz, chief UK economist at the bank Citi, which helped compile the report.

2019-10-08 15:28:08 UTC  

Nowhere in the reports that article references (https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/The-2019-IFS-Green-Budget.pdf), does it say that the wealth of the country has declined. The report says that "GDP is roughly 2.5–3.0% (Β£55–£66 billion) below where we think it would have been without Brexit." So rather it's a speculative at best prediction of what the author thinks would actually be the case based on their own subjective forecasts. As these forecasts are entirely speculative and as there is no way to affirm their validity, it is totally unknown whether or not they are even remotely correct.

2019-10-08 15:29:14 UTC  

ie: it's an opinion of two pro remain economists.

2019-10-08 15:29:32 UTC  

Right so that brings up the situation of how things are presented and framed.

When you say to the average person "we are poorer" that is losing money. It mean to them its below what was there before.

Once again its all framing, rephrase it as "an economist says the UK will lose out on Β£xx of growth" and you'll be fine.

2019-10-08 15:29:50 UTC  

men

2019-10-08 15:29:50 UTC  

tal

2019-10-08 15:29:51 UTC  

gym

2019-10-08 15:29:53 UTC  

nas

2019-10-08 15:29:54 UTC  

tics

2019-10-08 15:29:56 UTC  

No

2019-10-08 15:29:59 UTC  

It's framing

2019-10-08 15:30:18 UTC  

It's not even framing as such

2019-10-08 15:30:21 UTC  

Its also a statement of facts about a situation that is up in the air

2019-10-08 15:30:43 UTC  

It's just an entirely subjective opinion of two economists lol. It has the same validity as publishing a report with the predictions of economists who were pro brexit

2019-10-08 15:30:46 UTC  

Yes there is likely to be a reduction in growth in the short term.

2019-10-08 15:30:58 UTC  

But you can't say "THE UK WILL LOSE THIS EXACT NUMBER"

2019-10-08 15:31:11 UTC  

Because that is totally bullshit, since you don't know

2019-10-08 15:31:12 UTC  

I do agree that there is likely to be damage to the economy in the short term

2019-10-08 15:32:07 UTC  

The no brexit forecasts also don't seem take into account things like china

2019-10-08 15:32:18 UTC  

Looks like essentially an extrapolation of previous

2019-10-08 15:32:26 UTC  

When the whole of Europe has seen a downturn

2019-10-08 15:32:42 UTC  

So it would come to reason we would have also seen some downturn even if we didn't vote to leave.

2019-10-08 15:34:01 UTC  

Even then the predictions see a return to form in the medium term anway

2019-10-08 15:34:19 UTC  

Which is quite literally exactly what every sane brexiteer is saying

2019-10-08 15:34:22 UTC  

Short term losses

2019-10-08 15:34:31 UTC  

What is short term to you

2019-10-08 15:34:42 UTC  

Because leading brexiteers say it could take 50 years

2019-10-08 15:34:44 UTC  

to see any benefits to this

2019-10-08 15:35:16 UTC  

I'll take that report, it predicts a return to good growth by 2022

2019-10-08 15:35:31 UTC  

That is still even short term tbh

2019-10-08 15:35:39 UTC  

That will be a miracle considering we are heading into a recession this yaer

2019-10-08 15:35:45 UTC  

So

2019-10-08 15:35:53 UTC  

Do you agree with it or not then?

2019-10-08 15:35:59 UTC  

Just the bits that agree with your narrative?

2019-10-08 15:36:39 UTC  

Hey we could see a return to growth in 3 years

2019-10-08 15:36:46 UTC  

still means we have punished ourselves

2019-10-08 15:36:48 UTC  

and made ourselves poorer

2019-10-08 15:36:52 UTC  

We are not heading into a recession lmao