The purpose is to display the % of straight party tickets, and the % of split tickets, and then display the % each candidate got of split tickets as a function of the % they got of straight tickets.

Let me know if you see an error in my math

@DrSammyD so a downslope indicates that the more heavily partisan a county is, the more likely it is to vote a split ticket?

seems counterintuitive

No, the more heavily partisan a county is, the more likely the split voter is to vote for the opposite President

Here's a csv of the equations. https://json-csv.com/c/aiXI

Thanks, any chance of state column?

It'll be in alphabetical order

By abbreviation?

Yes

Make sure you download the new link I just edited (I had the candidates reversed)

The problem as I see it is that the split voter in Michigan is implausibly more likely to vote Biden than in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and even Illinois

Like 2X

Also, not that this is the theoretical maximum of straight party tickets.

Hmm, I just updated the data to assume a 10% of the theoretical maximum straight tickets are actually split tickets, which overlap on the party candidate with the least votes

I'm seeing other issues with the slope equations, such as " Equation = y = -7.05x + 232.32" for Trump GA in the csv, but "-.16x + 2.62" in graphic.

Hmmm, ok

Let me see if I can generate it better

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pennsylvania-court-secretary-of-state-changed-deadline

@stevesirag Here you go https://json-csv.com/c/ece5

> @meglide I think the courts should address all of it whether it changes the outcome or not...it is possible that the 3rd party candidates had votes taken from them as well due to these glitches and if everyone just focuses on the 2 parties, they will miss those votes, which could potentially still swing the election in favor of one of the 2 party candidates. For instance in PA, about 50-60k jorgensen votes were given to Biden due to an error from their names being mistaken for the other...if this was fraudulent, and they should go back to Jorgensen, then this is enough to put Trump ahead even if his votes weren't part of the transaction.
@Winter personally I think they should also but that's not what I've been told the courts do ... if there is evidence of a crime they may certainly prosecute that person but remedies for procedural mistakes may not happen ... that said, see my post, PA court ruled deadline extension lacked authority and those ballots may not be counted.

> No, the more heavily partisan a county is, the more likely the split voter is to vote for the opposite President
@DrSammyD agreed ... just like everyone hates Congress but likes their members of Congress 🙄

> The problem as I see it is that the split voter in Michigan is implausibly more likely to vote Biden than in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and even Illinois
@DrSammyD not so sure of that, doesn't MI have a Republican dominated state legislature and a Democratic governor? seems like the perfect place to get that kind of split?

Maybe this was covered here already or in one of the videos (link if there is one), but do you think Trump has a solid case under the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment?

> @DrSammyD not so sure of that, doesn't MI have a Republican dominated state legislature and a Democratic governor? seems like the perfect place to get that kind of split?
@meglide
So does Wisconsin and Minnesota.

@DrSammyD didn't know that ... interesting

Minnesota's senate is Republican, not their house.

But Wisconsin is almost the same make up

> I'm seeing other issues with the slope equations, such as " Equation = y = -7.05x + 232.32" for Trump GA in the csv, but "-.16x + 2.62" in graphic.
@stevesirag looking at that I am suspicious of a machine manipulation

what sort of company - involved in selections no less - decides to have an evil sounding name like "Dominion"

QED

@meglide @stevesirag @DrSammyD I am curious what this sort of analysis looks like on the 2012, 2016 elections

it isn't a perfect comparison, but if such anomalies show up regularly, it can mean we can set this sort of proof aside

@RobertGrulerEsq @FaithJoy In the 9 counties of Washington state that have their ballot status CSV's posted I have found 3932 ballots cast here with an Arizona address that could have voted there. I turned over all the data from my state to the Trump investigative team just in case the people are not filling out the change of address forms.

(I'm 11 mins behind) these slides are sometimes very nice; I am particularly interested in the Types of Fraud Allegation slides, are they available anywhere?

guess I can just take a screenie

nice slides!

(I'm posting screenies in another discord or two)

@realz we can probably start posting the slides in a separate channel on here! ill ask rob after the show(: but dont see why not!

I have another set of charts.
https://bitcadia.github.io/DownBallot/ratio.html?First=MI%2CWI%2CIL%2CPA%2CIN%2COH%2CFL

Philadelphia has CRAZY independent leaning toward Biden