Message from @Julien Blanc
Discord ID: 489582238053302280
so they need to be live caller
of course the problem is
when you have a live caller, you get the bradley effect
because voting for the less socially desirable candidate shows up less
Shillver is also doing a senate forecast now? alright...
jeez, he only had a 30% chance when it came to Trump winning in 2016 but he has a 32.4% chance the Democrats take the Senate. What are your thoughts @Pielover19 @FLanon @[Lex] @Nuke
and wow, he says there's only a 10% chance we gain more than 3 seats
for 60 GOP - 40 DEM he calculates it at 0.1%
What did he think in early/mid-September 2016?
That's the real question.
Also
>Espy
>1 in 6
Switch Espy & McDaniel
And you'll have my prediction
right now, he gives Josh Hawley the same chance that Trump had...the day of the election
Hah
West Virginia should be AT LEAST solid red. Morrissey will win at the very least 200% of the vote.
Silver thinks that Zak Ringelstein, the Democratic candidate in Maine...is only going to get 3.3%? I know Angus King is basically a Democrat, but....
"Ringelstein"
Lord...
Not only that, but it's possible that Maine could implement STV.
and his first name is 'Zak'
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Which basically breaks the dude's template really
Because once you vote with a preference-based list, it's like...
40% of the population votes Ringelstein and 40% votes Brakey
I think that Ringelstein got arrested
The structure of the STV system really determines if King survives.
also yeah
But it didn't make news in Maine if I'm correct
yeah I hear that Maine does ranked voting...is that why Silver is only giving 3.3% to Ringelstein?
all the people who'd vote Ringelstein almost certainly have King as their number 2 choice
Probably not.
The ads have started to air.
nice